Strong data seen depressing Indian bonds

05 Apr, 2004

Indian bonds are likely to lose ground after a robust performance last week as investors digest a flood of strong domestic and global economic data, which have sparked concerns about interest rate trends.
The market is also concerned about cash supply, with the central bank starting its sale of market stabilisation bonds to soak up excess funds.
"Economic conditions are certainly not favourable for bonds," said Sanjeet Singh, analyst with ICICI Securities Ltd.
"Domestic growth has been very strong and US data suggests a firm trend there as well. There are concerns about how long interest rates will stay soft."
The Indian economy grew by a stunning 10.4 percent from October to December compared with the same quarter a year earlier.
While inflation has fallen because of high prices a year earlier and lower food prices this year after bumper harvests, prices of manufactured goods, an indicator of demand, have remained firm.
The key 10-year federal bond's yield has fallen about 14 basis points over the past month to 5.1104 percent last week as inflation fell. Mukherjee did not expect the yield to fall below 5.1000 percent.
The central bank will sell bonds and treasury bills worth 355 billion rupees over the next three months under the stabilisation scheme.

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