Dollar up on jobs outlook, chances for rate hike

07 Apr, 2004

The dollar hit a four-month peak against the euro on Monday amid a broad rally generated by last week's surprisingly strong US jobs report for March.
Dollar buying momentum was bolstered further by a report on Monday showing a key measure of the vast US services sector economy hit a record high in March.
Analysts see a stronger US labour market as key to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates from a 1958 low of 1 percent, which would boost the appeal of dollar-denominated assets for foreign investors.
"The employment report is now out of the way. There's not a lot of data to hold sway over the market," said Jes Black, currency strategist at MG Financial in New York. "The dollar is going to keep the positive bid tone for the rest of the week".
The euro, which had trimmed early losses against the dollar, weakened briefly again after the Institute for Supply Management reported its non-manufacturing index surged to 65.8 from 60.8 in February, well above the median forecast of 61.5.
"It's the second really good report in a row, counting the employment report on Friday. It's very much better than the expected level," said Patrick Fearon, Economist at AG Edwards & Sons in St. Louis. "The service sector just keeps humming along. The employment improved a bit".
There are few data releases scheduled in the next few days that might trump the impact of the March jobs report, and reaction to the ISM service sector data was short-lived.
In afternoon New York trade, the euro was down more than 1 percent at $1.2012 from Friday's New York close, according to Reuters data. The dollar rose 1.11 percent to 1.3042 Swiss francs, while sterling fell 0.56 percent to $1.8208.
The dollar rose to 104.93 yen, a gain of 0.43 percent. The dollar has recovered much of the ground lost last week when it hit a four-year low around 103.38 yen. The euro fell 0.50 percent to 126.20 yen.
On Friday, the Labour Department said US non-farm payrolls added 308,000 jobs in March, the biggest gain since April 2000 and higher than analysts had forecast.
A Reuters survey of economists at 22 US primary dealers taken after the jobs report found only one had brought forward a forecast for a rise in US interest rates, to June from August. Economists remain almost evenly divided over whether the Fed will raise rates this year or wait until 2005.
"People are reassessing the US economic outlook because they had thought the recovery was jobless. People are beginning to price in the chance of a rate hike by August," said Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.
The European Central Bank, which left rates steady last week, told finance ministers over the weekend it was flexible and ready to change interest rates if needed.
There was some speculation going into last week's ECB meeting that the bank was ready to cut rates.

Read Comments