Cash sugar dealings were quiet with premiums steady as players gradually return to their trading desks after the Easter holiday weekend, brokers said Monday.
"It will take one to two days to crank it back up as people come back from the holidays," a trading house dealer said. "Some people are still trying to shake off Easter."
Indeed, the white sugar market in London remained closed for Easter. The raw sugar market was shut Good Friday and reopened for business on Monday. CSCE key May futures on the New York Board of Trade traded in a range of 6.67 and 6.84 cents per lb.
Differentials for raw sugar from Brazil's center-south area were seen flat to a 10-point discount of the CSCE sugar market for April/May shipment, largely unchanged from last week's level.
Premiums for ICUMSA 150 white sugar from Brazil for April/May shipment were seen at a discount of $20 to $40 to Liffe's white sugar market, from a discount of $25 to $40 last week.
The only bit of news came from Jakarta where state trading firm PT Rajawali Nusantara said last week it would reschedule a tender to buy 35,000 tonnes of white sugar because supply bids were too high. The re-tender will be held on April 13 or 14.
Analysts said news that China's sugar production in 2003/04 is not as bad as initially thought may dampen the appetite of market bulls.
The China Sugar Association predicted sugar output for the season at 9.8 million to 9.9 million tonnes, versus a February forecast of 9.5 million. Demand was pegged at 11 million tonnes.
Traders in Shanghai said that meant imports for the rest of the year may only reach 600,000 tonnes, sharply lower than the 1.0 million to 1.5 million tonnes of the sweetener some in the trade were betting that the Chinese would buy.
Some 200,000 tonnes worth of contracts since the start of 2004 and a 400,000-tonne supply agreement with Cuba should help sate Chinese consumption of sugar.
"The news is discouraging. People were thinking the Chinese could help pump up this market. It's a psychological blow to those who were looking for higher prices later in the year," a senior broker said.
Values could also be pressured in the days ahead as the harvest in top grower and exporter Brazil hits full bore.
The Sao Paulo Cane Agroindustry Union forecast that the Brazilian center-south cane harvest will rise 6.8 percent to a record 319.9 million tonnes in 2004/05.
Sugar exports from the region are forecast to rise by 1.5 million tonnes to about 13 million tonnes in 2004/05.
The region accounts for 85 percent of Brazil's output.