Strong dollar hits metals, oil supported by supply, security fears

25 Apr, 2004

A strong dollar pushed gold prices to a five-month low this week, and weighed on other commodities, while oil drew support from worries over supply and global security.
A strong US currency makes dollar-priced raw materials more expensive for many buyers outside of the United States.
"The common threat to all the metals has been the sudden strength of the US dollar," Societe Generale analyst Stephen Briggs said.
Cocoa prices meanwhile fell to a two-and-a-half year low in London before rebounding.
The Commodities Research Bureau (CBI) index of 17 commodities stood at 269.95 points on Friday, down from 278 a week earlier.
GOLD: Gold prices slumped to their lowest level for five months, hitting 389.95 dollars on Thursday.
"Continual pressure from the currency markets following the dollars steady rally against the major currencies has pushed gold back below the 400-dollar level," said analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com, a specialist website.
The dollar hit a five-month high against the euro on Wednesday after US Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan hinted at rising American interest rates.
Greenspan fuelled speculation that the US central bank may soon lift the key federal funds rate from a 46-year low of 1.00 percent after he declared the end of a near year-long deflationary threat.
By Friday afternoon, gold prices had fallen to 394.50 dollars an ounce on the London Bullion Market from 400.85 a week earlier.
SILVER: Silver prices slumped to a two-month low, hit by the dollar's rise and large-scale selling by speculative funds.
"Silver was again at the wrath of the funds," Moore said.
Societe Generale's Briggs added: "The silver bubble has burst. The price is down nearly 30 percent" from a 17-year high of 8.45 dollars per ounce reached three weeks ago on strong speculative buying.
The precious metal mounted a fight-back towards the end of the week, however, on strong industrial demand from the Far East.
"It looks as if silver has found a base from which to work higher," Moore said.
By Friday, prices had plumetted to 6.190 dollars against 7.115 dollars a week earlier.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM: Platinum and palladium prices tumbled, weighed down by speculative selling and a resurgent dollar.
"Platinum and palladium both succumbed to heavy fund selling," Moore said.
Platinum fell below the psychological 900-dollar level while its sister metal traded under the 300-dollar mark.
Profit-taking in the metals has meanwhile kept prices under heavy pressure, Moore said. Platinum prices had reached a new 24-year high of 944.5 dollars an ounce in the week to April 16, while palladium rose to levels not seen since August 2002, hitting 339 dollars.
"Strong industrial demand from the Far East should limit further falls in platinum while palladiums reliance on speculative demand leaves the metal open to further weakness" should funds decide to continue selling, he added.
By Friday, platinum prices stood at 850 dollars per ounce on the London Platinum and Palladium Market from 917 dollars a week earlier.
Palladium prices traded at 278 dollars against 309 dollars.
BASE METALS: Base metals prices declined as the dollar's strength hit demand. "Among the base metals, the weakness affected particularly copper and aluminium," Societe Generale's Briggs said.
Aluminium, which recently reached an eight-year high, suffered its biggest one-day fall for several years in the wake of Greenspan's comments, analysts noted.
Copper came under presssure after expectations that US mining group Freeport would reveal increased falls in production alongside its results proved overdone.
"The market was expecting greater production losses than the company had warned in January," Briggs said.
Freeport has been hit by a series of production losses in recent months, notably at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia - the largest copper mine in the world - following a mud slide there last October.
"But the results suggested that they recovered the production... and that maybe the production could rise faster than expected," Briggs said.
By late Friday, three-month aluminium prices slid to 1.728 dollars per tonne on the London Metal Exchange from 1,817.50 dollars a week earlier.
Three-month copper prices fell to 2,748 dollars per tonne from 2,855.
Three-month nickel prices stood at 12,175 dollars per tonne from 12,750.
Three-month zinc prices rose to 1,039 dollars per tonne from 1,017.50.
Three-month lead prices declined to 720 dollars per tonne from 730.
Three-month tin prices climbed to 8,750 dollars per tonne from 8,320.
OIL: Oil prices remained strong, helped by jitters over a shortage in gasoline stocks and bomb blasts in producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
The market is concerned about possible shortages of gasoline, or petrol, during the US summer when American motorists take to the open roads for the so-called "driving season".
Weekly surveys by the US Department of Energy and the American Petroleum Institute, a private trade association, showed a rise in gasoline stocks in the week to April 16, though not enough to lift worries about shortages later this year.
"The absolute level of gasoline inventory is low, but the situation is even more serious when the current strong level of demand is taken into account," Barclays Capital analysts told clients.
On Friday, the price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for June delivery stood at 33.34 dollars a barrel in London from 33.81 dollars a week earlier.
In New York, the reference light sweet crude June contract traded at 36.60 dollars against 36.99.
RUBBER: Rubber prices dipped, led by the Japanese market where prices were undermined by lacklustre demand, traders said.
The strengthening dollar was one factor deterring purchases.
"The activity has mainly been influenced by Japan," said one trader in London who preferred not to be named.
"The major tyre consumers in Singapore, including Michelin, are buying, but at a slower rate than a week ago," he added.
"Also the currency has been a bit of a nightmare all week, with the dollar strengthening against the euro and the yen."
In Osaka, the RSS 3 May contract stood at 142.50 cents on Friday against 148.20 cents a week earlier.
Singapore's RSS 3 contract for June traded at 134.00 cents from 139.25 cents the previous Friday.
COCOA: Cocoa prices stumbled again, hit by weak demand and favourable rains in Ivory Coast growing areas.
"Good weather in Ivory Coast augments rising production estimates, and the market remains in a long-term downtrend," said Refco analyst Ann Prendergast.
The dollar's advance against other currencies weighed on the New York market.
In London, meanwhile, prices fell to a two and a half year low of 781 dollars on Tuesday before clawing back.
On LIFFE, London's futures exchange, the price of cocoa for May delivery stood at 806 pounds a tonne on Friday from 799 pounds a week earlier.
On the CSCE, the New York futures market, the May contract traded at 1,345 dollars per tonne from 1,352 dollars.
COFFEE: Coffee prices remained on a backfoot with traders waiting for an expected upwards revision to the Brazilian government's forecast for the 2004/05 harvest.
"Market expectations, based on improved weather, put the crop as high as 43-45 million bags," against a government estimate in December of 34.1-37.5 million," said Prendergast.
The Brazilian government was cautious in the face of lower planted areas and a falling number of bearing trees, she added.
In New York prices fell to the lowest level for three and a half months amid selling by investment funds and speculators, before stabilising somewhat.
On LIFFE, Robusta quality for July delivery stood at 726 dollars per tonne on Friday, from 731 dollars a week earlier.
On New York's CSCE market, Arabica for May delivery was down at 68.25 cents a pound from 69.95 cents.
COTTON: Cotton prices eked out modest gains on the back of buying by speculative funds and reasonably good US export figures.
US export sales fell eight percent to 171,900 bales in the week to April 15 from the previous week, the US Agriculture Department said.
But the numbers were seen as being mildly positive as they were 11 percent above the prior four-week average.
Export shipments fell 32 percent to 323,400 bales.
New York's July contract rose to 63.60 cents a pound on Friday from 62.36 cents a week earlier.
The Cotton Outlook Index of physical cotton, the average of the world's lowest prices, was down at 69.20 cents from 67.55 cents the previous Friday.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Grain prices were pegged back by beneficial rains in US producer regions, while soya eased as South American crops arrived onto the market, analysts said.
Weekly US export sales of wheat, at 259,000 tonnes, were slightly disappointing, they added.
Sales of maize were a more robust 1.15 million tonnes, while those of soya were an unspectacular 126,000 tonnes.
On LIFFE, wheat for May delivery stood at 97.25 pounds a tonne on Friday against 97.00 pounds a week earlier.
In Chicago, the price of wheat for May delivery fell to 375 cents a bushel from 388 cents. Maize for May delivery declined to 304.00 cents a bushel from 312.50 cents. Soyabeans for May delivery stood at 951 cents a bushel compared with 977 cents.
May-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - stood at 300.50 dollars per tonne from 308.50 dollars.
SUGAR: Sugar prices held steady, supported by expectations of a global shortage of supply, analysts said.
In the near term, however, prices could be held back by signs of increased output from Thailand and reports that Brazilian millers are giving priority to production of sugar over ethanol, said Prendergast.
Expectations of orders from Russia, China and Italy lent support, she added.
On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for August delivery stood at 229.50 dollars on Friday from 226.80 dollars a week earlier.
On the CSCE in New York, a pound of unrefined sugar for May delivery traded at 6.60 cents against 6.70 cents.
WOOL: Australian wool prices rose as players returned from the Easter break.
A weakening of the Australian dollar against the resurgent US currency was the main factor seen boosting the market.
This encouraged orders from countries using dollars, such as China, which enjoyed greater purchasing power.
The Australian Eastern index climbed to 7.79 Australian dollars per kilo from 7.68 before the holiday began.
The British Wooltops index nudged up to 446 pence from 445 the previous week.

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