End-of-year lift raises hopes on French economy

28 Apr, 2004

French growth was brisker than initially believed in the last few months of 2003, with consumer spending and company investment bolstering hopes for a sustained acceleration in the second biggest eurozone economy.
In a revised report published on Tuesday, statistics office INSEE raised the estimate of growth in the last quarter of 2003 to 0.7 percent from an earlier estimate of 0.5 percent.
INSEE also revised growth upwards for the entire year 2003 to 0.5 percent from the 0.2 percent it had previously reported. The government has forecast 1.7 percent growth this year.
"It's good news that the numbers have been revised upwards. It also sets an encouraging tone for 2004," said Nicolas Claquin economist at CCF bank. "The French economy is progressively recovering, supported by good consumption."
The stronger growth offered some solace to the conservative governing party of Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, which was routed in a regional election last month as voters protested against high unemployment and unpopular economic reforms.
INSEE revised February's jobless rate last week to 9.8 percent from 9.6 percent - well above the eurozone average - and the unemployment rate has risen almost relentlessly since the current team took over from the Socialists in mid-2002.
"The remaining problem is employment, which is not set to improve greatly this year," Claquin said. "France's high unemployment rate is one of the factors explaining why the French recovery lags behind those in other countries."
The government has promised to fight unemployment and to stimulate growth. But France has also vowed to cut its deficit back below EU limits - three percent of GDP - in 2005.
In a separate report, INSEE confirmed that France's public deficit hit 4.1 percent of GDP in 2003 and that the national debt rose to 63.7 percent of gross domestic product.

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