Tokyo precious metals tumble on China, rate jitters

01 May, 2004

Tokyo precious metals futures tumbled on Friday as growing speculation over credit tightening in the United States and comments from China prompted massive liquidations by fund operators, traders said.
Yen-based platinum futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) plunged to near three-month lows, with the key April contract down more than 15 percent from a 16-1/2 year high of 3,127 yen hit less than two weeks ago.
Japanese trading houses and investors actively unwound positions as they hesitated to hold on to longs in the middle of Japan's "Golden Week" holidays. Non-Japanese hedge funds were also detected selling heavily.
Tokyo markets were closed on Thursday and will be closed for the first three days of next week for the holidays. "The trend has changed completely. Platinum may be entering a major downtrend.
Now the focus is on the extent of its falls," said Tatsuo Kageyama, an analyst at Kanetsu Asset Management. "The dollar's upturned and China's latest comment surprised the market and triggered heavy liquidation by hedge funds."
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao rocked commodity markets by saying in an interview with Reuters on Wednesday that China needs to put the brakes on its economy.
China had been the main destination this year for metals, grains and other raw materials, enabling commodity markets to enjoy their best run since the 1970s. A strong dollar and the chance of credit tightening in the United States also depressed precious metals.
US first-quarter gross domestic product data on Thursday was below forecasts but did little to dent the belief that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by August. US GDP expanded at a 4.2 percent annual rate. That was less than the 5.0 percent expansion rate expected and not much faster than the previous quarter's 4.1.
But markets were more worried about a surprise 3.2 percent jump in the GDP personal consumption expenditure price deflator, which encouraged expectations of an interest rate increase by the Fed.
"With perceptions of interest rates and China appearing to be changing, hedge funds are liquidating heavily and we have no idea how long this will continue," said a senior trader at a Japanese trading company.
"Hedge funds' money had flowed into precious metals because interest rates were low and also they have bought platinum due to prospects of tight supplies because of China." April TOCOM platinum closed down 105 yen per gram at 2,659 yen compared with Wednesday's settlement of 2,764.
It briefly touched the daily 120 yen limit low of 2,644 yen. Other platinum contracts closed down 95 to 120 yen. The benchmark April gold contract briefly fell to a 1-1/2 week low of 1,369 yen.
Although falls in gold were smaller than for other precious metals, sentiment for it was also bearish. The April gold futures contract closed down 17 yen at 1,376 yen. Others closed down 16 to 18 yen.
Spot bullion was quoted at $386.85/$387.35 an ounce against $386.25/$387.00 in New York. Below are closing prices for TOCOM's most active precious metals contracts, with the day's turnover for each metal.

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