CBOT wheat futures higher

01 May, 2004

Wheat futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed sharply higher on Thursday on bullish export news and on a weak dollar, which makes wheat cheaper for importers buying it in other currencies, traders said.
Another strong rally in CBOT soy also contributed to the gains in wheat futures prices, they said.
CBOT wheat closed 2-1/2 to 7-1/2 cents per bushel higher, with May up 7-1/2 at $3.80. July was up 6-3/4 at $3.89-1/4.
Estimated volume was strong at 34,573 futures and 4,659 options.
Traders said the strong number for wheat in USDA's weekly export sales report released early Thursday and evidence that China is picking up its stalled shipments of US wheat purchases boosted the market.
USDA said US wheat export sales last week totalled 874,400 tonnes (old-crop and new-crop combined), above estimates for 300,000 to 600,000 tonnes. China shipped out 198,700 tonnes last week.
Also there was support stemming from concern about potential harm to some of the US winter wheat crop from an expected cold snap this weekend. Meteorologists said the cold weather probably wouldn't harm much of the crop, but there is a threat, notably to the HRW wheat crop in the central and southern Plains. The crop is forming heads and beginning to flower, which leaves it vulnerable to freeze damage.
Crop scouts on the annual Kansas crop tour late Thursday estimated that the state would produce 355 million bushels of wheat this year, down from last year's tour estimate of 364 million.
Technical support in the May contract was at $3.68-1/4 per bushel, and resistance at $3.78-1/2 was broken, touching off buy-stops and driving the contract to a session high of $3.82-1/2. The nine-day relative strength index for May stood at 29 prior to the open on Thursday. Chartists view an RSI of 30 or less as an oversold market and 70 or more as an overbought market.

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