LME metals end mostly higher, but vulnerable

12 May, 2004

The metals market opted for stability during Tuesday's open-outcry sessions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) after an earlier upward correction, traders said.
But the market was wary of renewed investment fund sales, with end-week attention likely to focus on US economic data, dollar movements and interest rate perceptions.
"We climbed a bit on some light short covering, but it lacked momentum and some fund selling and profit taking put a cap on it, " a floor trader said. "Things are a bit dicey at the moment and there's certainly not enough confidence to push firmly higher."
On Monday, fund selling swept through the complex, driving copper to its lowest since mid-February, aluminium to a five-month low and nickel to levels last seen seven months ago.
Other metals also tumbled, as did many other commodities, bar oil, that have enjoyed bull runs in 2004. Sentiment was bruised by concerns about a possible near term rise in US interest rates, a slowdown in Chinese buying and high oil prices.
"Near-term sentiment will remain fragile and further weakness is likely until interest rate sensitive investments are unwound.... Additionally, metal consumers will be reluctant to enter the market until they are satisfied that a floor has been found," said Martin Fewings, metals analyst at Mitsui Bussan Commodities.
"Yesterday was such a wash-out - it was a poor day across the board. Everyone is getting worked up about figures (US data) at the moment, so we are likely to see yet more volatility," a fund source said.
Copper steadily advanced, ending the rings at $2,596 a tonne, up from the Monday kerb close of $2,543, and compared with the $2,530 low of yesterday. Traders noted that LME warehouse stocks rose by 375 tonnes, with 500 tonnes of copper being delivered into Singapore - the first metal to be shipped there this year. This was due to metal being diverted from China.
Singapore's LME warehouses - which had been empty of copper for around five months - could expect more deliveries soon, traders there said.
"There is more copper coming, but the quantity is not as big as people might have imagined," a trader in Singapore said, citing earlier estimates of between 60,000 and 100,000 tonnes.
Tin was untraded in the kerb rings, ending at $8,750/760, up $225 and deriving continued support from extreme tightness, with the cash/threes backwardation at $450/475, up $100.
In other metals, aluminium rose $33 to $1,593, while nickel traded $50 lower at $10,600. Lead gained $4 to $726 and zinc advanced $10 to $1,025.

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