Soyabeans end mixed

13 May, 2004

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures ended mixed on Tuesday, with nearby contracts higher on firm US cash prices and evening before on Wednesday's US Department of Agriculture monthly crop report, brokers said.
CBOT soyabeans settled up 13 cents per bushel to down 3 cents, with July up 9-3/4 cents at $10.22-1/4 and November up 2-1/4 cents at $7.54-3/4.
Commodity funds were light net buyers, while commercials were light net sellers, brokers said.
Technical resistance for July soyabeans at Monday's high of $10.25 was briefly met, while support held at Monday's low of $10.02.
Deferred new-crop CBOT soya contracts ended mixed to weak on Tuesday as weather forecasts pointed to continued good crop development.
The US Department of Agriculture reported late on Monday that 35 percent of the US soyabean crop had been planted on Sunday night, matching traders' estimates and above the five- year average of 21 percent.
Overall, volume was relatively light before the USDA's monthly crop report, due at 7:30 am CDT (1230 GMT) on Wednesday, traders said.
They noted lingering concerns about tight US soyabean supplies until September 1, with most traders believing that South America's key 2003/04-soyabean production estimate will be cut further.
Analysts expect the USDA on Wednesday to cut its Brazilian 2003/04 soya output to 53 million tonnes or lower, after recent Brazilian analyst forecasts for a sub 50 million tonne crop.
USDA cut Brazil to 56 million last month, from 59.5 million in March. Analysts' estimates for USDA's Argentine soyabean crop forecast were 33 million to 35 million tonnes.
Last month, USDA cut its estimate of Argentina's crop to 35 million from 36.5 million in March.
Brazil and Argentina are the second- and third-largest soya growers in the world, respectively, after the United States.
The average analyst estimate for US old-crop 2003/04 soyabean stocks was 114 million bushels, down 1 million from USDA's April estimate of 115 million bushels.
The 2002/03 end stocks were 178 million bushels, down from 208 million in 2001/02.
The average estimate for US new-crop 2004/05 soyabean stocks was 211 million bushels, in a range of estimates from 150 million to 250 million.
CBOT soyameal ended up $4.40 per ton to unchange, with July up $3.70 at $328.00 per ton.
Commodity funds bought at least 1,100 contracts and commercials were light net sellers, brokers said.
CBOT soyaoil settled up 0.21 cent to down 0.15 cent, with July up 0.10 cent at 32.48 cents. Commodity funds and commercials were light net sellers, brokers said.
A firm close in rival Malaysian palm oil futures buoyed nearby soyaoil futures, brokers said.
Overnight US soyabean export business was quiet, while cash US Midwest soyabean basis bids was steady to firm.
The CBOT July soyabean crush margin closed down 0.51 cent at 56.63 cents per bushel.

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