Over 6 percent GDP growth rate for 2003-04 realistic

20 May, 2004

Donors say that achieving GDP growth rate beyond 6 percent for fiscal year 2003-04 seems realistic, according to the higher economic activity in economy.
Finance Minister Shauakt Aziz in his recent statement has said that the GDP growth rate could touch 6.2 percent at the end of the current fiscal year.
A key donor office in Islamabad said it believes that various sectors of economy like telecom, IT, and others would be accounted for in the renewed calculations of the government to be delivered before the budget in the Economic Survey before the budget.
Apart from these factors, world recovery and growing exports would add to growth rate in medium term.
Moreover, nearly 10 industries are being included in the calculations after replacing the base year of 1980-81 with 1999-2000.
The donors also believe that the increase in development spending from Rs 160 billion to probably Rs 200 billion would be helpful in achieving the higher growth targets. They were of the view that the efficiency increased as four years of reforms have generated capacity to improve growth rate, which is becoming visible now.
The key objective of the government is to invest in infrastructure sector without accumulating too much debt, which requires concessional loans and encouragement to public private partnership.
They said that apart from the risks like weather changes for agriculture productivity, low world growth and others, the increasing oil prices in international market could transfer inflation and growth.
On the SME sector they said that the country's banking sector has started concentrating on it to offer more credit, which provides larger jobs and pulls overall growth in most part of the globe.
The donors also hoped that the government has political will to continue overall reforms patterns after lapsing IMF's Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) in December 2004.

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