Oil prices fall on Opec's effforts; precious metals stumble

06 Jun, 2004

Oil prices were torn last week between terrorism fears and the efforts of Opec producers, who eventually managed to wrestle prices lower with an increase in their output ceiling of over 10 percent.
Elsewhere precious metals lost some of their lustre, led by gold, as uncertainty over the path of the dollar kept traders cautious.
Base metals prices were also on the defensive amid worries about the outlook for the Chinese economy.
The Commodities Research Bureau's index of 17 commodities fell to 273.17 points on Friday from 276.49 a week earlier.
GOLD: Gold prices failed to sustain a recent rebound, pressured by investment fund selling and currency concerns.
"Gold has disappointed the bulls this week," said Societe Generale analyst Stephen Briggs.
"There were great hopes earlier in the week that gold was going to break back above 400 dollars, but it failed to do so. The evidence is that a lot of funds have now liquidated their positions."
Events on the foreign exchange market continued to have a significant influence on the gold price.
"The dollar is still the driving force," said Briggs. "When the dollar strengthened a bit, gold came under pressure."
Gold, which is priced in dollars on world markets, usually benefits from a weaker greenback, which makes the metal more attractive to buyers using other currencies.
By Friday gold prices stood at 388.30 dollars per ounce on the London Bullion Market from 393.25 dollars a week earlier.
SILVER: Silver were sucked lower in gold's wake amid heavy fund selling.
"Silver is where fund influence has been the greatest," said Briggs.
"The funds think they have had enough of silver, and if they are not interested, there is not much reason why it should go up."
Silver prices fell to 5.760 dollars per ounce on Friday from 6.125 dollars a week earlier.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM: Platinum and palladium were also under pressure amid general investor caution towards precious metals. The pair appeared to be following gold, said Briggs.
"In the background, platinum fundamentals are still very strong and palladium fundamentals are still very weak," he added.
Analyst James Moore at the TheBullionDesk.com website argued both metals were holding up relatively well compared with other precious metals.
"Despite the downward pressure experienced in gold and silver over the past few sessions platinum and palladium are still looking pretty strong," he said.
By Friday, platinum prices traded at 829.5 dollars per ounce on the London Platinum and Palladium Market from 832 dollars a week earlier.
Palladium prices dipped to 241 dollars per ounce from 246 dollars.
BASE METALS: Base metal prices headed lower in choppy trading on worries that a slowdown in the booming Chinese economy could dent demand for raw materials.
"There were rumours that China was expected to raise interest rates," said Briggs.
"The market is very nervous at the moment, reflecting the uncertainty about Chinese demand."
But the market could be over-reacting, he added.
"The fundamentals are still pretty strong, so prices should stay high in the next six months."
By Friday, three-month copper prices stood at 2,681 dollars per tonne on the London Metal Exchange from 2,762.5 dollars a week earlier.
Three-month aluminium prices fell to 1,656 dollars per tonne from 1,674.
Three-month nickel prices declined to 11,880 dollars per tonne from 11,970.
Three-month lead prices traded at 811 dollars per tonne from 839.5.
Three-month tin prices dropped to 9,175 dollars per tonne from 9,390.
Three-month zinc prices were at 1,085.5 dollars per tonne from 1,112.5.
OIL: Oil prices set new record high levels after a terrorist attack on foreign workers in Saudi Arabia, but came off the boil by the end of the week following OPEC producers' decision to raise their output ceiling.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed in Beirut to raise its daily production quota of 23.5 million barrels by 2.0 million next month and by another 500,000 barrels in August.
But with the cartel already pumping well over its official ceiling, traders feared the move would do little more than bring the output quota up to current production levels.
It would also leave OPEC with little scope to raise output again in the event of supply stoppages, they said.
With the only real spare capacity left within OPEC found in Saudi Arabia, the market was expected to remain sensitive to worries about terrorist activity in the kingdom.
"We expect (OPEC's) actual production to increase to about 26.6 million barrels per day," analysts at Lehman Brothers said.
"However, this will mean that the cartel will be producing close to full capacity. With little flexibility in the system, there is a risk of upward price spikes in event of any supply disruptions."
Strong demand from China and the United States as well as American refinery bottlenecks, which have aggravated gasoline supply worries, were additional factors expected to limit any decline in crude prices.
Prices were also pressured this week by figures showing US inventories of crude oil and gasoline rose sharply over the past week.
The Energy Department reported Thursday that crude stocks for the week ended May 28 were up 2.8 million barrels to 301.7 million barrels.
Motor gasoline supplies were up 1.3 million barrels in the latest week to 204.3 million, the data showed.
By Friday, the price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for July delivery stood at 36.04 dollars per barrel in late London trading from 36.46 dollars a week earlier.
In New York, the reference light sweet crude July contract traded at 38.80 dollars from 39.53 a week earlier.
RUBBER: Rubber prices weakened as oil price concerns kept traders cautious, though public holidays in Asia made for subdued trading.
"The market has been very quiet," said one London dealer.
"Everybody is worried about the price of oil - that affects the currency market. When oil goes up, the dollar goes weaker and vice-versa."
In Osaka, the RSS 3 July contract stood at 152.20 cents on Friday against 156.10 cents a week earlier.
Singapore's RSS 3 contract for July was steady at 135.50 cents.
COCOA: Cocoa prices fell sharply, pressured by producer selling, analysts said.
"Supply is ample as good weather continues to favour the mid-crop, and political unease has for the moment ebbed into the background," said Refco analyst Ann Prendergast, alluding to unrest in Ivory Coast.
On LIFFE, London's futures exchange, the price of cocoa for July delivery dropped to 769 pounds per tonne on Friday from 835 pounds a week earlier.
On the CSCE, the New York futures market, the July contract stood at 1,334 dollars per tonne from 1,463 dollars.
COFFEE: Coffee prices rose to the highest level for almost four years in New York on fears frost could damage crops in Brazil.
"The market is supported by fund participation and the possibility of frost," said Prendergast.
"Delayed harvesting of the 2004/05 harvest and the ever-present potential for frost have conjoined with positive technical indicators to lift the market to new highs as funds, who had exited the market rush back in."
On LIFFE, Robusta quality for July delivery gained to 829 dollars per tonne on Friday, from 799 dollars a week earlier.
On New York's CSCE market, Arabica for July delivery traded at 83.5 cents per pound from 83 cents.
COTTON: Cotton prices suffered fresh losses as speculators pressured the market ahead of an anxiously awaited US government report on production and consumption next week.
"The market is at the whim of the specs and given that they are already heavily short they may continue to press the downside for the time being," said Prendergast.
New York's July contract eased to 57.70 cents per pound on Friday from 61.60 cents a week earlier.
The Cotton Outlook Index of physical cotton, the average of the world's lowest prices, slipped to 66.80 cents on Thursday from 69.45 cents a week earlier.
GRAINS AND SOYA: US soya prices headed south on forecasts of dry weather in US producer regions seen as favourable for plantings, while grains put on a mixed performance.
On LIFFE, wheat for July delivery rose to 81.50 pounds per tonne on Friday from 79.25 pounds a week earlier.
In Chicago, the price of wheat for July delivery dipped to 368.50 cents per bushel from 369.75 cents.
Maize for July delivery advanced to 309.25 cents per bushel from 300.5 cents.
Soyabeans for July delivery fell to 816 cents per bushel from 825 cents.
July-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - traded at 256.5 dollars per tonne from 258 dollars.
SUGAR: Sugar prices nudged higher on meteorological concerns.
"The market has been supported by wet weather threatening a bumper Brazil sugar 2004/05 harvest, possibly even reducing it by 10 million tons from an estimated 320 million tons if the rains continued," said Prendergast.
"Meanwhile, buying interest from Russia, China and India was said to have picked up with no results to show for it yet."
On LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for August delivery climbed to 220 dollars on Friday from 218 dollars a week earlier.
On the CSCE in New York, a pound of unrefined sugar for July delivery stood at 7.05 cents from 6.97 cents.
WOOL: Wool prices in leading producer Australia reached a five-month high, helped by Chinese buying and a weaker Australian dollar.
"China was particularly dominant this week," the Australian Wool Industries Secretariat said.
"The roller coaster behaviour of the currency markets continued this week", it added.
The Australian Eastern index rose to 8.08 Australian dollars per kilo from 7.90 a week earlier.
The British Wooltops index stood at 433 pence against 431.

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