California's economy will grow modestly this year and speed up a bit in 2005 and 2006, trimming the state's jobless rate as payrolls steadily expand, according to a closely watched economic forecast released on Tuesday.
However, job growth in California will be uneven as its manufacturing sector and the tech-laden San Francisco Bay area struggle to rebound, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
"We're off the bottom and moving," said Joseph Hurd, an economist with UCLA Anderson Forecast. "But don't look for things to be like they were four, five, six years ago."
"Much of the state didn't have a recession, but the San Francisco Bay area got hammered bad, which is slowing us down," Hurd said.
The region is home to Silicon Valley. After a boom in the late 1990s, a tech downturn in recent years sharply reversed the area's fortunes, costing thousands of tech workers their jobs and emptying once bustling business parks.
Local jobless rates are falling in the region, but that in part reflects the fact that many people are leaving the work force after giving up looking for work amid a flat business climate, Hurd said.
By contrast, Southern California's business climate remains healthy, Hurd said.