Soya ends up, old-crop leads on export hopes

23 Jun, 2004

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures ended higher on Monday, led by nearby old-crop contracts on worries about tight US soya stocks and hopes that China would resume US soya purchases, traders said.
US soyabean supplies are expected to drop to a 27-year low by August 31 following strong domestic and unprecedented demand from China, the top global soyabean importer.
On Monday, China suspended its ban on Brazilian soyabean imports following two months of disputes over traces of fungicide found in Brazil cargoes. Brazil is the second-largest global soya producer behind the United States.
Even though China also said on Monday that it had found quality problems in a cargo from No 3 global soya grower Argentina, CBOT traders hoped the announcement signalled growing Chinese demand for soyabeans.
In particular, CBOT brokers hoped China would resume buying US soya after the recent hiatus. CBOT soyabeans settled up 5 cents to 18-1/2 cents, with July up 16-1/2 cents at $8.88-1/2 and November up 13 cents at $6.79 per bushel.
Commodity funds bought about 4,000 contracts and commercials were light net sellers, brokers said.
In spread trade, Cargill Investor Services spread about 3,000 August/July and 800 July/August, while Fiat Futures spread 400 November/July and ADM Investor Services spread 400 July/August, they said.
The key CBOT old-crop July/new-crop November soyabean spread closed on Monday at $2.09-1/2 per bushel, up from the June 2 level of $1.20, but still well below the May 11 level of $2.66 per bushel.
CBOT soyameal settled up $1.70 to $10.00 per ton, with July up $10.00 at $293.00 and December up $3.40 at $211.70 per ton. Commodity funds bought about 2,500 lots and commercials were light net buyers, brokers said.
Cash US soyameal basis offers were firm on Monday, dealers said. CBOT soyaoil futures ended up 0.10 cent to 0.75 cent per lb, with July up 0.75 cent at 28.23 cents and December up 0.31 cent at 24.35.
Funds bought about 1,200 contracts and commercials were about even on both sides of the market, brokers said. Overnight gains in rival Malaysian palm oil futures underpinned prices, brokers said.
Forecasts for drier US Midwest weather limited gains in new-crop CBOT soyabean and soya product futures, brokers said. The improved crop weather was expected to help farmer's plant the remainder of there US soyabean crop as well as improve crop conditions.
The US Department of Agriculture late on Monday was expected to boost its weekly ratings of the US soyabean crop 1 to 2 percentage points. Last week, the USDA said 68 percent was in good to excellent condition.
US weekend soyabean exports were quiet, while CIF values at the US Gulf were steady on Monday.
The USDA reported on Monday that 6.060 million bushels were inspected for shipment during the week ended June 17, including 2.504 million bushels for Indonesia.
The total inspection figure topped CBOT traders' estimates. US Midwest cash basis bids were steady to firm on Monday as processors boosted their basis in an attempt to attract supplies.
The CBOT July soyabean futures crush margin closed up 13.75 cents at 66.63 cents per bushel, while the August margin ended up 8.89 cents at 88.79 cents.

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