Ukrainian feed wheat is due to make a comeback in southern Europe this season as the breadbasket of the former Soviet Union is expected to recover from last year's crop, the worst in 50 years, analysts said on Thursday.
Ukraine flooded the European Union with coarse grains in the 2002/03 season, exporting nearly three million tonnes of wheat to force out EU-grown crops.
The bloc was then forced to set a special import quota on foreign low quality wheat.
Analysts and traders said this season western feed wheat producers would again have to compete with Black Sea grain, but Ukraine could lose out in some of the contests with the new central European members of the European Union.
"We see grain exports at up to seven million tonnes in 2004/05. It will be coarse grain only," one trader said.
Traders said Ukraine might export about three million tonnes of feed wheat worldwide, three million of barley and up to one million tonnes of other feed grains.
Some 1.0-1.5 million tonnes of wheat could head to the European Union.
Increased exports, from 2.5 million tonnes in 2003/04, are seen reflecting a larger harvest this year.
Ukraine has said it plans to harvest up to 35 million tonnes of grain, including 15 million tonnes of wheat, in 2004. It harvested 20.2 million tonnes, including 3.6 million of wheat, in 2003.
But analysts said Ukraine was unlikely to be able to dominate the EU market as it had done in 2002/03, saying new EU members and Russian grain producers would fight for their share.
"Ukrainian grain sales to Europe are unlikely to return to the level of 2002/03, but about one million tonnes, or 1.5 million as maximum, could arrive in the EU this season," said Serhiy Feofilov from UkrAgroConsult agriculture consultancy.
One trader said higher domestic prices could also reduce the scope for exports to the EU.
"In 2002/03 we won because of our very low prices, while this season the prices could be higher. But we know that Spain and Italy plan to import our wheat," she said.
She said Ukrainian feed wheat prices would fall to $85 per tonne FOB Black Sea at a maximum, while Ukraine traded feed wheat at less than $70 in 2002/03.