Eurostocks week ahead: Eyes on H1 sales and US earnings

04 Jul, 2004

European bourses turn their attention back to corporate earnings next week after markets got through the first increase in US interest rates in four years largely unscathed.
Across the Atlantic, Internet heavyweight Yahoo! and Genentech, the world's second-largest biotech company, report quarterly earnings on Wednesday as the results season starts to gather pace.
"We are going into the results season in the US next week and people have moved from about 17 percent (earnings) growth to around 20 percent, so I think it's going to be quite a good results season," said Andrea Williams, head of European equities at Royal London Asset Management.
"We've had no real pre-warnings, so that should confirm that the corporates are doing quite well."
Investors in European equities have a slower start and will have to satisfy themselves with first-half sales figures from companies including supermarket operator Carrefour, carmaker Peugeot and cosmetics firm L'Oreal.
Having dominated investor thinking for months, the Fed finally raised interest rates on Wednesday, upping its benchmark rate to 1.25 percent from its 46-year low of one percent.
"The move into the tightening phase of US monetary policy has passed without pain, with the restrained bond market reaction dispelling one major uncertainty," Commerzbank Securities said in a note.
"Looking forward we expect only modest rises in yields to now provide the backdrop for strong equity markets, which should favour the cyclicals."
Roger Hornett, chief executive and global strategist at Gilissen Securities, said other uncertainties of the first half, including oil price peaks and geopolitical worries, had also eased. This had set the tone for a strong second half.
"We are in the throes of the most geographically widely spread economic recovery that I have seen for 30 years," Hornett said.
"I think during the summer months it will edge gently higher and I think we will have a very good end to the year, so the markets would end up, I would say, about 15 percent over the year as a whole."
The FTSE Eurotop 300 Index gained around four percent in the first half and was trading down 0.2 percent at 993.8 at 0900 GMT.
Europe's first quarter earnings season was one of the strongest ever, with a record number of positive surprises.
"We have had an awful lot of good news in the first half, so it would difficult to see that sustained to the same degree, but we still think we will see earnings surprises and we're expecting good things from this reporting season," said Robert Jukes, a strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston.
Airlines will also be eyed next week, with a number of carriers including British Airways, Lufthansa, SAS and easyJet providing traffic data.
Airline stocks have found renewed favour in recent sessions as crude oil prices retreated from recent peaks and industry data showed a surge in passenger numbers in the first five months of the year.
The week is likely to start sluggishly, with US markets closed on Monday for the July 4 Independence Day holiday.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned US police of potential July 4 attacks by al Qaeda using tactics like assault teams, car bombs and suicide bombs, although it said it had no credible threat for the holiday.
Still this week, key monthly non-farm payrolls data was due at 1230 GMT on Friday.
An unexpected rise in weekly jobless claims on Thursday revived concerns the US jobs market was not as strong as some people had thought.
Economists polled by Reuters expected around 250,000 to have been added to the non-farm payroll in June following May's 248,000 rise.
Other data of note next week include Eurozone purchasing managers' index (PMI) data on Monday, German unemployment and US service industry data on Tuesday and the minutes of the Fed's May 4 meeting on Wednesday.

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