The rising power demand

12 Jul, 2004

As a report in this paper the other day revealed, the demand for electricity in this country has been growing at a rapid rate. Wapda's annual electricity demand growth, which remained at about four percent during the past five years, has suddenly gone up to 15 percent. A peak demand on July 8, for instance, reached 11,942 MW as against 10,200 MW for the same day a year earlier.
This is partly the result of the fast expanding rural electrification programme, and partly of the mounting consumption by the industrial sector as well as domestic users of electrical appliances.
Which is reflective of a positive trend towards developmental activity and therefore should be greeted as good news but for the fact that the power production sector finds it hard to keep pace with the growing consumer requirements.
Federal Minister for Water and Power Aftab Ahmad Sherpao acknowledged the problem when, during a meeting with Wapda officials in Lahore on Thursday, he stressed the need for an early completion of the on-going power projects, saying this was necessary to cope with the growing electricity demand.
According to Wapda's own account, the existing private power plants are being used to their maximum capacity, hence the situation in the southern parts of the country is "quite satisfactory". But due to extreme shortage of hydel power, it says, the utility has to resort to load management - a euphemism for power cuts - in northern Punjab and NWFP.
It explains that the electricity production capacity of Mangla and Tarbela powerhouses has declined considerably due to low water discharges, under IRSA instructions, to reservoirs on which they feed. Inter-provincial water disputes, of course, are to blame for this situation.
Power, it hardly needs saying, is an essential component of all economic activity. When there is surge in demand, as at present, it must be met on a high priority basis.
However, availability of power alone is not enough, it must also be economical. In this regard we have our own past experience to learn from.
The Benazir government, it may be recalled, concluded a clutch of agreements with independent power producers (IPPs) to help the country tide over acute power shortages.
That resulted in abundant electricity production; but it was so expensive that the succeeding government found it difficult to honour the agreed tariff terms, leading to a tough and protracted legal fight with one of the international IPPs, Hubco, at the cost of foreign censure and loss of investor confidence.
The government had to deal with another minor setback, when it offered the sale of its surplus power to the energy-starved northern states in India, which did show some initial interest. But given its own high costs, Pakistan asked for a price that was many times higher than the prevalent rates in India, and so the proposal soon fell through.
That instance, in fact, should serve as an instructive lesson for our economic managers in that it explains why it is possible for the Indian industry to sell its products in the international market at much more competitive rates than those made in Pakistan.
While it grapples with the rising demand, the government, of course, also needs to address the dilapidated electricity distribution network in almost all the old areas of large cities and the rampant corruption and theft of electricity.
The restructuring of Wapda, privatisation of KESC and distribution companies remains as elusive as ever. Besides this, the government would need to give top priority to hydel power generation too-that being the cheapest source of producing electricity after nuclear energy.
Towards that end, it must expedite the resolution of inter-provincial water disputes through an amicable process of discussion and persuasion.
In addition to completing the ongoing projects at quick speed, it may also have to work out agreements with more independent power producers.
Hopefully, this time round it would make sure not to leave any room for future controversy or conflict between the sellers and buyers of electricity.

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