Oil prices still high on fears of tight supplies

25 Jul, 2004

Oil prices approached recent record high last week as the traders remained nervous about tight supplies and the threat of disruption to Russian exports.
A resurgent dollar meanwhile weighed on many commodities, notably gold and other metals.
The Commodities Research Bureau's index of 17 commodities dropped to 269.28 points on Friday from 272.67 a week earlier.
GOLD: Gold prices recoiled as the dollar rebounded in response to an upbeat outlook from US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan.
A stronger dollar makes gold, which is priced in the US currency on world markets, less attractive to many buyers outside the United States.
"Fed chairman Greenspan's comments about the robust US economy have been largely to blame for this week's sell-off in gold," said UBS analyst John Reade.
Greenspan said the US economy was in a broad expansion and he could not rule out steeper-than-expected US interest rate increases.
"Gold, now back below 400 dollars, is eying support around 392 dollars (and) needs a resumption of dollar weakening to re-establish the rally," said Reade.
"We continue to forecast gold at 405 dollars in one month and 450 dollars by the year end."
By Friday, gold prices stood at a fixing of 391.50 dollars per ounce on the London Bullion Market against 406.30 dollars a week earlier.
SILVER: Silver prices rose to a new three-month peak near the start of the week before encountering profit-taking.
"The move higher in silver has been driven by renewed speculative and investment buying, prompted by firm gold, base metals and the euro," said Reade.
Prices reached 6.70 dollars an ounce on Monday, the highest level since April 20.
But the market foundered on Wednesday under heavy fund selling pressure.
Silver prices stood at 6.345 dollars per ounce on Friday from 6.62 dollars a week earlier.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM: Platinum and palladium prices benefited from robust speculative interest.
"The recent weakness in platinum and palladium appears to have passed as both metals have regained so ground over the past few trading sessions," said Reade.
Platinum prices reached 836 dollars an ounce at the fixing on Tuesday morning, the highest level since June 8.
By Friday, platinum prices stood at 818 dollars per ounce on the London Platinum and Palladium Market from 824 dollars a week earlier.
Palladium prices dollars traded at 220 dollars per ounce against 224.75 dollars the previous week.
BASE METALS: Base metals prices were undermined by the stronger dollar.
Aluminium prices were also hit by worries about demand from China.
"There are reports that Chinese aluminium smelters will look to export as much as possible due to a marked fall in Shanghai prices, and ahead of the much anticipated removal of an eight percent export rebate," Barclays Capital analysts told clients.
"Prices have succumbed, along with the rest of the base metals complex, to further downward pressure on dollar strength," they added.
By Friday, three-month copper prices stood at 2,710 dollars per tonne on the London Metal Exchange from 2,838 dollars a week earlier.
Three-month aluminium prices traded at 1,663 dollars per tonne against 1,735.
Three-month nickel prices eased to 13,800 dollars per tonne from 14,925.
Three-month lead prices dropped to 852 dollars per tonne from 883.
Three-month tin prices traded at 8,540 dollars per tonne from 8,750.
Three-month zinc prices slipped to 978 dollars per tonne from 1,012.
OIL: Oil prices reached a seven-week high in New York on Monday, nearing record levels amid worries about terrorism, supply risks and political tensions.
Prices later eased back, only to take off again after Russian energy giant Yukos warned it would declare bankruptcy if Moscow carried out a threat to sell a major subsidiary of the group over a tax dispute.
Yukos produces 1.7 million barrels of crude oil a day, some 20 percent of Russia's total production.
"Given the capacity constraint that now limits the OPEC's ability to produce more oil, it is not surprising that the market has become so concerned over the outcome of the Yukos end-game and its impact on Russia's oil exports, wrote analysts at Barclays Capital.
Since further increases are crucial in helping to meet incremental global demand growth, they added.
Meanwhile a weekly snapshot of US commercial inventories showed a decline in crude oil stocks but a rise in gasoline.
According to a survey by the US Department of Energy, crude oil stocks dropped 3.6 million barrels to 299.3 million, about average for the time of year, the government said.
Gasoline inventories rose 2.5 million barrels to 208.4 million, also in line with the average for this time of year with much of the high-demand summer period already past.
By Friday, the price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for September delivery stood at 38.05 dollars per barrel in late London trading against 38.20 dollars a week earlier.
In New York, the reference light sweet crude September contract rose to 41.45 dollars a barrel from 41.30 dollars a week earlier.
RUBBER: Rubber prices remained on a backfoot with supplies still plentiful.
"Mainly the fall in prices is led by pressures on (rubber) futures in Tokyo," said one London trader who asked not to be named.
"Also driving them down is the good and healthy supply of raw materials. The combination of the two has forced sellers to lower their prices."
In Osaka, the RSS 3 October contract fell to 134.70 US cents on Friday from 139.10 cents a week earlier. Singapore's RSS 3 contract for October dropped to 120 US cents against 124 cents the previous Friday.
COCOA: Cocoa prices remained in favour with speculators, reaching the highest level since February.
"The move is solidly technical and fuelled by fund buying," noted Refco analyst Ann Prendergast.
"Dry weather concerns and expectations of a more average 2004/5 crop are supportive but do not justify the extent of this rally."
On LIFFE, London's futures exchange, the price of cocoa for September delivery gained to 947 pounds per tonne on Friday from 856 a week earlier.
On the CSCE, the New York futures market, the September contract increased to 1,630 dollars per tonne on Friday from 1,526 dollars the previous week.
COFFEE: Coffee futures slipped with weather in producer Brazil still clement.
"The recent upside failure negates some of the positive sentiment that was developing in the market and the drier weather along with no threat of frost opens the market to tepid times," warned Prendergast.
On LIFFE, Robusta quality for September delivery stood at 696 dollars per tonne on Friday, from 705 dollars a week earlier.
On New York's CSCE market, Arabica for September delivery slipped to 70.75 cents per pound from 70.80.
COTTON: Cotton futures suffered fresh losses in response to a disappointing the US export sales report.
New York's December contract fell to 47 cents per pound on Friday from 47.80 cents a week earlier.
The Cotton Outlook Index of physical cotton, the average of the world's lowest prices, was stable over the week at 56.75 cents on Thursday.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Grain and soya prices were undermined by favourable weather in US producer regions, analysts said.
Meteorological conditions in the US Midwest were "very good", said Fimat analyst Dan Cekander.
On LIFFE, wheat for November delivery fell to 67.20 pounds per tonne on Friday from 67.00 pounds a week earlier.
In Chicago, the price of wheat for September delivery dropped to 327.50 cents per bushel from 332.35 cents.
Maize for September delivery weakened to 223 cents per bushel from 239 cents.
Soyabeans for August delivery eased to 668.50 cents per bushel from 728.5 cents.
August-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - sagged to 219.50 dollars per tonne from 245 dollars.
SUGAR: Sugar prices lost some steam after reaching a two year-plus best the previous week.
Prices have rising since mid-May on worries about a global production deficit in 2005.
By Friday on LIFFE, the price of a tonne of white sugar for October delivery stood at 240 dollars from 246.6 dollars a week earlier.
On the CSCE in New York, a pound of unrefined sugar for October delivery dropped to 7.79 cents from 8.26 cents the previous week.
WOOL: There were no auctions in leading producer Australia, were sales resume on August 2. The Australian Eastern index stood at 7.99 Australian dollars per kilo before the start of the break.
The British Wooltops index was steady at 436 pence.

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