Dollar locked in range as market eyes US data

28 Jul, 2004

The dollar was locked in ranges against major rivals on Tuesday as the market awaited data that is seen key to gauging the buoyancy of the US economic recovery. Analysts said that last week's dollar rally, spurred by upbeat comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on the recovery of the US economy, had faded, and that the market was looking to trade on indicators due in coming weeks.
"We're left here with quite moderate positioning compared to last week, so the market isn't trying to buy dollars right now. It's just adjusting to (current) levels and so we have to wait for the next trigger," said a dealer at a foreign bank.
The dollar was trading around 109.87 yen versus 109.95 yen in late New York trade.
Some analysts said that the dollar/yen would stay in tight ranges as investors of Japanese stocks were waiting for first-quarter earnings results from major companies to land.
"The dollar/yen is unlikely to see much movement until the last big earnings come out in early August. After that, there will be a period of reassessment of stocks," said Naomi Fink, senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas.
In the meantime, Japanese importers were seen lending support to the dollar while its upside was capped by exporter offers around 110.20-30 yen, with stop-loss orders lined up around 110.50 yen.
The US currency was at 1.2130 per euro, firming a touch from New York levels but off a near-one-month high of $1.2087 hit on Friday.
Analysts said there was a possibility that range trading could create a build-up in euro/dollar positions, which could lead to loss cutting in the single European currency.
European traders were expected to look to the IFO survey of the business climate in Germany to glean a sense of where the euro was headed.
In summer-slowed trading, Tokyo dealers said they were looking to a series of upcoming US indicators, starting with the consumer confidence index for July due later in the day.
The index is expected to come in at 102.0 compared with 101.9 in June.
The US economy likely expanded 3.8 percent in the second quarter, according to the median forecast of economists. That compares with growth of 3.9 percent in the previous quarter.

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