Malaysian imports raced ahead by 27.5 percent through the year through June, a Reuters poll showed, but the pace is likely to drop off as the drivers of this surge in imports, the country's exporters, slow down.
A cooling US economy, Malaysia's biggest trading partner, and weakness in the global tech industry are expected to put a brake on import growth in a country where about three quarters of imports are goods used to manufacture finished exports.
Import shipments of goods used to make electronics exports, Malaysia's main export, remained healthy in June, helping to cap off a strong second quarter for imports, according to the poll of 13 economists.
"Trade numbers will start to moderate somewhat but still remain fairly impressive," said Song Seng Wun, an economist with Singapore-based G.K. Goh who expects Malaysian export growth to slow to the teens from 23 percent in the year to the second quarter.
The government will release the June trade data at 12.01 pm (0401 GMT) on Tuesday. It does not provide seasonally adjusted data to show the change between months.
Imports grew 26.5 percent in the year through May and 31.6 percent in the 12 months to April.
Economists said the rise in the year through June partly reflected a rebound from low imports in mid 2003, when the economy was hit by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome disease outbreak.
Malaysia imported 24.1 billion ringgit ($6.3 billion) worth of goods in June 2003, but import growth has probably now peaked as the global appetite for electronics wanes amid concerns the technology sector will slow in the second half, economists said.
Manufacturing exports are heavily skewed toward electronics, such as semiconductor devices, radios and television sets, cables and wires. They make up about 80 percent of Malaysian exports.
"Trade numbers will start to moderate somewhat but still remain fairly impressive," said G.K. Goh's Song, who expects Malaysian export growth to slow to the teens from 23 percent in the year to the second quarter.
Weaker-than-expected profit forecasts from technology stalwarts such as Microsoft have fanned fears that a recovery in tech company earnings may have peaked.
The poll predicted Malaysian exports would grow 19.4 percent in the year though June, a touch slower than the 20.5 percent expansion in the 12 months to May.
Through the year to June, neighbouring Singapore's exports rose 20.9 percent while South Korean exports grew 39.6 percent.
Malaysia's trade surplus is forecast to have narrowed to 6.7 billion ringgit in June from 6.9 billion ringgit a year earlier. The surplus was 6.8 billion ringgit in May this year.