Iraqi firms could become the unlikely winners in the country's kidnapping crisis, ensuring that steady supplies reach US-led forces, as foreign transporters fall like flies and vow to quit Iraq.
"The plans of foreign transporters to withdraw from Iraq appear negative on the surface of it," said Eric Nigh, vice president of the Iraqi American Chamber of Commerce.
"But I think it is positive as a lot of Iraqi transport companies can replace these foreigners and do business with the multinational forces."
Ferrying goods into Iraq has become a lucrative business over the past year, and many foreign trucking companies have bagged contracts with the coalition forces.
But amid the optimism for Iraqi rivals, insurgents in the flashpoint city of Ramadi, west of Baghdad, issued a chilling warning Wednesday that all truck drivers delivering goods to US-led troops face death.
"We will kill anyone, whether Arab, foreign or Iraqi, inside any truck carrying goods to the damned occupation forces," said a statement from the advisory council for the mujahedeen, or insurgency leadership, in Ramadi.
Around 70 percent of multinational force supplies are shipped to Kuwait and from there, driven through Iraq by foreign transporters.
But since April, insurgents have created panic by kidnapping dozens of foreign truck drivers who ply the roads through the Kuwaiti, Jordanian and Turkish borders. Many captives have been killed or beheaded. After one such Turk was shot dead this week, Turkey's International Transporters Association urged its members to immediately stop shipping cargo to US troops in Iraq.
On Wednesday, Ankara confirmed that two other abducted Turkish drivers were released after their two employers agreed to stop work in Iraq.
Daoud and Partners, a leading Jordanian firm and key supplier of foodstuffs to the US army in Iraq, also said it was quitting after two of its drivers were kidnapped, but declined to elaborate.
"We can't comment on any issue relating to our work, especially in Iraq as everything gets related to the kidnapping of our employees," a company director told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Kuwait Gulf and Link Transport, which had seven drivers kidnapped by a group calling itself "Holders of the Black Banners", has also expressed willingness to leave.
The company is negotiating on a kidnappers' demand to compensate the victims of US attacks in the city of Fallujah in the rebel Al-Anbar province.
Last month, the Philippines evacuated its 51-member army contingent from Iraq earlier than planned to rescue one of its nationals held hostage, a ploy that saved his life but drew criticism from the United States and Australia.
Analysts point out that appalling insecurity has made foreign firms wary of continuing operations in Iraq. "These incidents have generated fear among foreign transporters, and it would be an opportunity for Iraqi firms to replace them," said Sadoun al-Dulaimi, head of the private Iraq Centre for Research and Strategic Studies.
"I think the US should start working with Iraqi transporters as soon as possible to maintain its supply lines."
But the US military refused to comment on how much its supply lines may have been affected for "operational security reasons".
Given the situation, Iraqi companies are better placed to partner US-led forces, Nigh said.
"Presently, most of these trucks ferrying goods have to be escorted by US armoured vehicles while bringing goods in Iraq," said the chamber of commerce official.
"An Iraqi company could safely do this job without all this security and make good money for itself."
Although numerous Iraqis working for the coalition have been killed in targeted attacks, Nigh brushed aside fears that Iraqi firms could fall foul to the insurgency.
"In our trade body, we have 4,000 Iraqi firms working with many American companies and nothing has happened to them.
"It is business and Iraqi companies would not hesitate to do business with Americans or anyone. Otherwise, how do you explain the smooth sourcing of Pepsi in Iraq despite the violent insurgency," he said.