Taiwan posted robust July trade data on Monday as exports remained strong to its top two markets, China and the United States, but there are signs a slowdown may be coming.
Taiwan shipped US $14.66 billion of goods last month, rising 26.1 percent from a year earlier, with exports to China, Southeast Asia and South Korea all up more than 30 percent, the finance ministry said.
The figure was in line with the median 25.9 percent rise forecast by a Reuters poll and June's 24.5 percent rise.
"It's good. In general, global market conditions are still favourable," said Jun Ma, an economist with Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. "Taiwan will see a slowdown by the end of the year, but it will not be a drastic one," said Ma.
Taiwan's trade surplus in July shrank 30 percent from a year earlier to just $892 million, as imports jumped 32.9 percent to $13.66 billion, the ministry said, attributing the result to sharply higher raw materials prices, especially oil.
The Reuters poll had predicted import growth at 42 percent.
While the jury was still out on how much Taiwan exporters would suffer from slower demand in its largest markets, the United States has posted worse-than-expected July jobs figures, an indication that US consumers' hunger for imports could slow.
Taiwan shipments to the United States last month rose only 7.5 percent from a year earlier to $2.41 billion, half the 15.3 percent year-on-year growth seen in June.