Oilseeds output in India, the world's top edible oil importer, is likely to fall by 7.6 percent to 23.1 million tonnes in the current crop year following poor rains in growing belts, a leading think tank said on Wednesday.
Groundnut production is forecast to drop by 18 percent to 7 million tonnes in 2004/05 from the previous year, while output of soyabeans is seen declining by 8.5 percent to 7 million tonnes, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) said in a report.
"The south-west monsoon was severely deficient for five consecutive weeks beginning the last week of June," the report said, adding that erratic progress of the monsoon had adversely affected sowing of winter crops in the country.
Monsoon rains were 13 percent below normal in the first half of the four-month season ending in September, though they have now picked up. Most parts of the country are now getting good rains.
Traders said poor rains in the crucial month of July had already done some damage to winter crops. Groundnuts, soyabeans, rice and cotton are major winter crops, sown in June and July and harvested in October and November.
The summer-season plantings for crops such as wheat and mustard begin just after that and harvesting takes place in February and March. Foodgrains output has been forecast at 208.8 million tonnes in 2004/05, marginally down from 210.8 million tonnes in the previous year, the CMIE report said.
The country's rice production is estimated to fall to 84 million tonnes from 86.4 million tonnes a year, it said. But cotton production is expected to marginally rise to 13.5 million bales (of 170 kg each) in 2004/05 from 13.47 million bales in the previous year.