The number of Indians contracting AIDS could rise to 5.5 million a year by 2033 - more than the total number of current cases - unless urgent steps are taken, the World Bank said on Friday.
Without a change in treatment policy and progress on prevention, HIV/AIDS will become the single largest cause of death in the world's second most populous nation, accounting for 17 percent of all deaths and 40 percent of infectious deaths, by 2033, the bank said in a report on HIV/AIDS in India.
HIV/AIDS currently accounts for two percent of all deaths and six percent of infectious deaths.
"Anti-retroviral therapy is not going to have a big impact on the course of the epidemic," Peter Heywood, World Bank health specialist and one of the authors of the study, told reporters.
"What will have an impact, however, is the use of condoms and prevention."
India has the largest number of people with HIV/AIDS outside South Africa and experts fear it could soon vault to the top of the world's list. Knowledge about the illness is still scant, and most Indians who are infected do not know it.
According to the government, the number of people living with AIDS in India rose to 5.1 million in 2003.