Venezuela risk seen higher if Chavez loses vote

15 Aug, 2004

President Hugo Chavez's left-wing government said late Friday Venezuela's people, including oil workers, would not accept his defeat in Sunday's referendum on his rule.
The warning by Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez stoked fears that fanatical Chavez supporters, including state oil company employees and military commanders, could resist if the opposition prevailed in the poll on whether to recall the populist president.
"There is no way he (Chavez) will be beaten. There is no way the people would accept it, including our oil workers," Ramirez told reporters.
Chavez and the armed forces have pledged to respect the referendum result, whatever it is, when announced by electoral authorities, possibly late on Sunday.
But the president Thursday also warned of a popular backlash if the opposition coalition recalled him and came to power in subsequent elections.
The warnings revived the worst-case referendum scenario for the world's No. 5 oil exporter: a contested outcome sparking renewed turmoil like that of 2002 and 2003 which was triggered by a failed coup against Chavez and a crippling oil strike.
But a leading international observer, outgoing Organisation of American States Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria, told reporters he believed both the president and his opponents would accept the results given by electoral authorities.
Chavez, a former paratrooper who six years before winning the 1998 elections tried to seize power in a coup of his own, has purged the military and state oil firm PDVSA, converting them into bulwarks of his self-styled "revolution."
To recall Chavez, the opposition must equal or beat the 3.76 million votes he received when re-elected in 2000. But if the "No" vote is bigger, he stays in office.
If Chavez loses, a presidential election will be held within 30 days. The Supreme Court still has to rule on whether he could stand in that poll. If not, he would have to wait until elections in December 2006.

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