Canadian dollar makes up week's losses, options eyed

15 Aug, 2004

The Canadian dollar made up the week's losses on Friday amid a pair of contrasting trade reports from Canada and the United States.
At 1:55 pm, the Canadian dollar was at C$1.3097to the US dollar or 76.35 US cents, up substantially from C$1.3300 to the US dollar, or 75.18 US cents, at Thursday's close. It has closed lower for four consecutive days this week, after last week's sharp gain from a surprisingly weak July jobs data from the United States, which pounded the greenback.
"There are shades of last on Friday's payroll-induced dollar sell-off. We've seen a repeat performance this based on the merchandise trade numbers. Now we should retest a bounce-off of C$1.3075, which was last on Friday's low," said Jack Spits, director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada.
The Canadian dollar began its sharp ascent after figures released on Friday showed Canada's trade surplus hit a record C$8.63 billion in June, well beyond expectations for a C$5.7 billion surplus, and in sharp contrast with a record US trade deficit.
Data that showed Canadian factory shipments rose 1.5 percent, more than triple the average market forecast, to C$49.92 billion, also supported the currency.
The US June trade deficit ballooned to $55.82 billion, well above expectations, and walloped the US dollar broadly against the major currencies as the data raised concerns the US Federal Reserve may not have to raise rates at all of its remaining meetings this year.
The Canadian dollar hit an intrude high of C$1.3077, extending gains after the University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for August came in weaker than expected.
It showed a preliminary reading of 94.0 versus a final July reading of 96.7, and against forecasts of 97.5. The Canadian dollar has been moving sideways for the last six weeks, stuck in a C$1.30-C $1.34 range and now eyes option barriers.
Amid a broad-based sell-off of the US currency, the Canadian dollar is "stealing the show now as it tried to get a close below C$1.3085," said a West Coast-based currency trader, adding that a big option barrier lies at C$1.3050 with big stops below.

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