South Africa's monthly maize crop estimate for 2004 surged by a higher-than-expected five percent to 8.48 million tonnes on Thursday and traders said the final figure could be as much as 8.7 million tonnes.
The market had been expecting a figure closer to 8.3 million tonnes and traders said the data from the government's Crop Estimates Committee had to be bearish on maize futures when the market reopened on Friday.
Committee chairman Rodney Dredge said the increase on last month's 8.06 million tonne estimate was the result of good yields.
The committee's seventh estimate is now 25 percent higher than it's first forecast back in February, when it said South Africa would produce 6.8 million tonnes following one of the country's worst droughts in the past 80 years.
It said the white maize harvest was projected at 5.21 million tonnes and yellow maize at 3.26 million tonnes, up from 4.91 million and 2.15 million tonnes in July respectively.
Traders said Johannesburg's maize futures market would fall on the data.
"It has to be a bit bearish for the market. We will trade down tomorrow but probably not limit down (45 rand lower)," another trader said.
On Wednesday the committee said it would release an unscheduled, eighth estimate of the crop on September 20 because of this season's late plantings.
Dealers said that figure was likely to be even bigger.
"Some guys in the market are saying the final figure could be 8.7 or 9.0 million tonnes. I don't think 8.7 is impossible," the dealer said.
Last year, the country produced 9.39 million tonnes, but current projections are impressive given South Africa planted its smallest maize area since 1940 due to the dry conditions.
In its first estimate of the wheat crop, the committee said South Africa would produce 2.03 million tonnes - bang in line with output from the last five years and well ahead of 1.54 million tonnes produced in the 2003-2004 season.