THE RUPEE: exporters' dollar selling releases pressure on local currency

26 Aug, 2004

The inter-bank market on Wednesday received fresh supply of dollars as exporters released their proceeds after observing there was not much gain in dollar's near future value, dealers said.
Thus, the rupee has gained eight paisa in relation to dollar since last week for buying and selling at Rs 58.67 and Rs 58.69, respectively.
Recent rising trend in the oil prices globally pushed the payment bills higher and it seemed that the trade deficit would easily cross the target of 3.02 billion dollars. Higher payments made the dollars dearer in the market and partly caused tight money supply in the market, dealers said.
According to them, the rupee was firm and it might gain further in the near term as increased dollar selling by exporters would be enough to meet the corporate demand.
Experts said that the other boosting factor was tight money market which enabled the rupee to hold on to the its present levels. In addition, they said, importers' less buying interest in dollars also helped the rupee.
State Bank's close watch over forex market was also giving relaxation to the rupee, they added.
As far as expectations over the inflows are cornered, this factor would definitely help the rupee in the long run as well as in the short-term, they said.
According to the banking sources, the rupee moved slightly down following the downward trend in the regional currencies to face world exports competitions. Under the circumstances, it was necessary to maintain foreign exchange earnings, they said.
Commenting on the prevailing situation after the rise in oil prices and wheat shortage, some analysts said that the economy is under pressure slightly as unforeseen apprehensions prevailed among the strategists and the general masses as well after the shoot up in the world oil prices.
Precautionary measures are needed in the country to deal with the aftermath of negative impact of the oil prices. Locally, the inflation rate has already gone up to 9.33 percent in the month of July, 2004 as a result of soaring wheat prices.
According to a news report, to control the wheat shortage crisis, the government is importing 95,000 tons wheat. Experts hope that this might discourage hoarding and bring down atta prices.
The rupee maintained its rising trend against the euro, gaining 15 paisa for buying and selling at Rs 71.35 and Rs 71.65, respectively.



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Kerb buying Rs 59.11
Kerb Selling Rs 59.16
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Buying Rs 58.67
Selling Rs 58.69
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Repo Rates (Yield p a)
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Tenor Low Bid High Bid Low Offer High Offer Average
=================================================================
Overnight 4.50 5.00 5.00 6.00 5.13
1-Week 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.13
2-Week 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 2.63
1-Month 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.05
2-Months 2.00 2.25 2.40 2.60 2.31
3-Months 2.10 2.25 2.35 2.50 2.30
4-Months 2.25 2.40 2.60 2.75 2.50
5-Months 2.30 2.60 2.75 3.00 2.66
6-Months 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 2.88
9-Months 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.13
1-Year 3.50 3.75 3.90 4.00 3.79
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Call Rates (Yield p a)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Tenor Low Bid High Bid Low Offer High Offer Average
=================================================================
Overnight 5.00 6.00 5.50 6.00 5.63
1-Week 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.75 3.38
2-Week 2.50 2.75 3.25 3.50 3.00
1-Month 2.00 2.10 2.50 2.75 2.34
2-Month 2.20 2.40 2.60 2.75 2.49
3-Month 2.40 2.60 2.75 3.00 2.69
4-Month 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 2.75
5-Month 2.50 2.75 2.90 3.10 2.81
6-Month 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.13
9-Month 3.25 3.50 3.75 4.00 3.63
1-Year 3.50 3.75 4.00 4.25 3.88
=================================================================

According to currency dealers, the demand for dollars remained intact; therefore, the local currency faced pressure.
The dollar resumed trading at overnight closing levels of Rs 59.20 and Rs 59.25 on buying and selling sides, respectively. With the increase in dollar's demand, its rate marginally increased to Rs 59.22 and Rs 59.28 on buying and selling counters, respectively, dealers said.
On the contrary, the rupee continued upward journey against pound sterling. The pound's buying rate further declined from Tuesday's closing rate of Rs 106.80 to Rs 106.20, while selling rate moved down from Rs 107.40 to Rs 106.90, dealers added.
Following sharp decline in pound worth, the moneychangers widened the gap between buying and selling rates, as they had picked British pound at higher rate and thus did not reduce the selling rate corresponding to the decline in buying rate.
The dollar opened at Rs 59 (buying) and Rs 59.10 (selling) against the overnight value. It did not observe any further change in the second session, and closed at Rs 59 (buying) and Rs 59.10 (selling).
The pound sterling opened at Rs 106.90 (buying) and Rs 107 (selling) against the overnight value. It did not observe any further change in the second session, and closed at Rs 106.90 (buying) and Rs 107 (selling).
The Canadian dollar opened at Rs 45 (buying) and Rs 45.10 (selling) against the previous rate. It did not observe any further change in the second session, and closed Rs 45 (buying) and Rs 45.10 (selling).

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