New York cotton settles off as storm-led rally falters

02 Sep, 2004

NYBOT cotton futures closed easier Wednesday on speculative sales and profit-taking after an early surge stoked by fears over Hurricane Frances faded in the market, analysts said.
Key December cotton slipped 0.45 cent to conclude at 53.91 cents a lb, moving from 53.40 to 56 cents. March eased 0.51 to 54.99 cents. The rest lost 0.40 to 0.85 cent.
Cotton had rallied at the open on speculative and fund buying over fears that Hurricane Frances could barrel into prime US cotton growing areas and expectations that demand for the fibre could be higher than previously anticipated in the 2004/05 season (August/July).
"Things slowed down," said Frank Weathersby of brokers Affinity Trading in Fort Walton Beach, Florida.
Frances, a powerful storm with centre winds of 145 mph (225 kph), is churning its way toward the Bahamas and could threaten the south-eastern United States by the weekend.
The cotton futures market will be shut Monday for US Labour Day and reopens on Tuesday, September 7.
The main concern over Frances would be if it struck cotton plants in Georgia, one of the largest cotton producers in the country, and Alabama. Heavy rains falling on the open bolls of cotton plants could decimate both yields and quality.
"About 2.5 million (480-lb) bales of cotton in Georgia and Alabama are in the path of the storm and about half of that cotton is open," said the daily commentary by brokers Flanagan Trading Corp.
Looking toward the weekly US Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report, cotton brokers said they expect US net upland sales to range between 50,000 and 130,000 running bales (RBs, 500-lbs each), versus 115,600 RBs in last week's data.
They said cotton shipments should reach between 75,000 and 150,000 RBs, versus last week's 161,700 RBs.
"I think it's a stalemate right now," a broker in the US Southeast said. "We're not going to see a lot of sales with the rally we're seeing right now."
Flanagan said resistance in the December contract was at 54.30 and 54.80 cents, with support at 53.75 and 52.85 cents.
Floor dealers said estimated final volume stood at 21,000 contracts, up from Tuesday's tally of 18,578 lots. Open interest fell 843 lots to 69,292 lots as of August 31.

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