Europe's ample grain harvest has sent prices tumbling, but farmers are now holding back stocks and tightening supplies as they try to force the market higher, traders said on Wednesday.
Analysts predict a European grain crop some 20 percent up on last year. In France, the continent's main grower, the wheat harvest could top 38 million tonnes, up from below 30 million in last year's drought-hit season, they say.
Only in Britain and Denmark has wet weather caused a real problem by delaying harvesting this season and denting quality.
As a result, European prices have drifted lower - Paris-traded November futures hit a high of near 140 euros a tonne in late 2003 but a summer of generally favourable weather has seen the contract slip steadily to around 112 euros now.
The French crop may be in from the fields but farmers have kept stocks off the market, believing they can push prices levels up by creating artificial shortages.
"The sellers have not followed the market lower - and it's an irresponsible action," one trader commented.
"It feels as though there isn't any wheat at all in France, whereas in fact we've probably got more than 38 million tonnes this year," another added.
The sellers' action has helped to support prices, if not boost them significantly.
Traders in Germany, where the farm ministry has predicted a 33 percent jump in winter wheat production to 24.6 million tonnes, have noticed similar moves.
"Farmers are being a lot more cautious than in past years and are putting more wheat into storage rather than selling at the current end-harvest lows," one trader said.
However, he said big customers such as mills and feed makers have enough cover for now and could afford to wait a while.
"The market is basically deadlocked," he said.
Consumers are also betting on the European Union not reinstating export subsidies, which will force more of the bumper harvests onto domestic markets.
"These large volumes have got to go somewhere and with exports not likely to be supported by the EU this season they will have to land in the local market," one German trader said.
German and Dutch feed makers are also hoping for extra pressure on feed grain prices from Germany's huge rye crop, up 64.6 percent on the year at 3.7 million tonnes.