Tech, oil and Frances to rule US markets

06 Sep, 2004

As if Intel's profit bomb didn't put enough of a damper on the summer-ending long weekend, investors returning this week after Labour Day will be wary of a market offering as much pitfall as promise.
Continued strength in oil prices, inconsistent economic news and worries about the outlook for corporate profits will make for a bearish mood on Wall Street, although volume should pick up after a period of thin, choppy trade.
US financial markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.
Hurricane Frances, which hit Florida hard over the weekend, clouded the horizon, albeit bearing a silver lining for some.
Insurance companies could face losses, but home improvement retailers such as Home Depot Inc and Lowe's Cos could gain due to a surge in repair work.
Earnings news slows to a trickle this week, but a spate of corporate conferences will draw attention as investors look for signs of additional profit weakness following Intel Corp's dismal midquarter business update on Thursday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will testify on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, though Friday's US employment report preserved the prospect of the Fed maintaining its measured pace of interest rate increases.
On Friday, the New York Stock Exchange volume levels remained low. Just 924 million shares changed hands, below the NYSE's daily average last year of 1.4 billion. The blue chip Dow Jones industrial average closed slightly lower at 10,260.20. The jobs report that nearly matched analyst expectations helped stem losses on the index.
For the week, the Dow gained 0.64 percent, the broad Standard & Poor's 500 rose 0.54 percent, but the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index slid 0.95 percent.
September is a "confession" period for companies, and with a string of technology conferences this week, investors will be keeping their ears open for news bites.
Intel's downward revision of its revenue and profit-margin forecast, citing weakened chip demand, has only heightened concerns of market watchers.
A couple of earnings are scheduled: Comverse Technology Inc, which supplies voicemail software for mobile companies, will report on Wednesday and analog semiconductor maker National Semiconductor Corp will report on Thursday.
Oil will also be in focus, analysts said, although prices have fallen from peak levels. If supply concerns, arising from pipeline sabotage in Iraq and worries over production at Russian oil company Yukos worsen, then there could be another run-up in prices.
US October crude futures ended Friday's trading in New York at $43.99 a barrel, up from $43.17 a week ago.
Depending on the damage caused by Hurricane Frances, earnings of insurance companies, such as Allstate Corp, the No 2 US home and auto insurer, and The St. Paul Travellers Companies Inc, could be hurt in the short term.
The Labour Department said employers added 144,000 workers to their payrolls in August, and revised upward hiring numbers for the previous two months, increasing expectations that the Fed will continue to increase rates.
"We have Greenspan speaking to the Budget Committee, and the idea is that given today's employment data, we will see if there is any change in tone," Piskorowski added.

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