Asian currencies steady as stocks and yen recover

07 Sep, 2004

A weaker South Korean won was the notable exception on Monday as most Asian currencies ended barely changed after their stock markets recovered early losses and the Japanese yen bounced off two-week lows.
The yen recovered to near 110 per dollar, off Friday's lows near 110.70 after the dollar received a boost from the US employment report for August.
Technology stocks in the region were hurt after Intel Corp trimmed its sales forecast, but Korean shares traded just off four-month highs struck on Friday and share markets in other Asian countries rallied.
The Korean won was down a quarter percent and at a week's low of 1,153 a dollar and the Taiwan dollar was off Friday's seven-week high of 33.86, although it remained on the firmer side of 34 a dollar.
The rest, including the Singapore dollar barely moved. Markets were expected to tread carefully until US Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony on Wednesday, which traders hope will hold clues on the likelihood of a rate rise in September.
Economists at UBS said while foreign portfolio flows to Japan and the rest of Asia had resumed, they would be only cautiously bullish on the region's currencies.
"With global growth appearing to be slowing, exports peaking and the SOX semiconductor index hitting a new low for the year on Friday, we think the Bank of Japan and regional central banks will be unwilling to tolerate renewed strength in Asian currencies," UBS said in a note.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's semiconductor index, a highly watched indicator among technology- and electronics-exporting north Asian countries, fell to its lowest level in 14 months on Friday.
The global purchasing managers' index has also been slowing.
Lehman Brothers said in a note the slowdown in global manufacturing was not such a big threat to Asian currencies because they had already been weakened by the spike in oil prices and worries about a hard landing for China's economy.
And with growth still strong despite having peaked in these countries and inflationary pressures building, the case for weaker currencies was less clear, they said.
Elsewhere, the premium on the yuan in non-deliverable forwards shrank slightly after China's finance minister reiterated the commitment to a virtually pegged currency.
The premium has risen this month as markets started pricing in the possibility of renewed pressure at the Group of Seven meeting in early October for China to let the yuan strengthen.
One-year NDFs were quoted at 2,300 points, implying an appreciation of nearly 3 percent in a year's time in the yuan, down from about 2,400 in the morning. The yuan is effectively pegged at around 8.28 per US dollar.

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