The first US presidential debate this week and a load of data on consumer spending will settle some questions that have been hanging over US stocks, and equity strategists and traders say the decreased uncertainty could draw buyers back to the market.
In the coming days, investors expect greater clarity on a variety of issues, and near the top of the list is a clearer sense of who will be the next US president.
Upcoming data also will provide a better sense of consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of US economic activity, and the impact of higher energy costs on American wallets.
Still, they caution, the market's direction will remain subject to longer-term price trends in the crude oil market.
The market has been held back this year by oil prices and other factors, and the third-quarter performance is telling.
Barring a rally in the first four days of the week, the market will log its first losing quarter since the first three months of 2003, when the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index fell 3.5 percent. On Friday, the broad market gauge was down about 2.6 percent from its June 30 level.
Also influencing investor thinking in coming days will be earnings from several consumer products companies, notably beverage company PepsiCo.
The first of three face-to-face presidential debates is scheduled for Thursday, September 30, in Coral Gables, Florida. That will be followed by debates scheduled for October 9 in St. Louis and October 13 in Tempe, Arizona. This week's exchange will focus on foreign policy and homeland security.
"There is going to be sideways trade until the election, which is not that far away, or at least until the first debate is out of the way," said Michael Murphy, managing director of trading at Wachovia Securities. "Until then, it is hard to get anybody to take their wallet off their hip and put money to work."
According to a CBS poll released on Thursday night, President George W. Bush holds an eight-point lead over Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry among registered voters, but one in four voters say this week's debate could be decisive.
Bush led Kerry by 49 percent to 41 percent in the nation-wide poll. Last week, Bush led by 50 percent to 41 percent in a CBS poll.
ECONOMIC DATA: "This week, we'll see if the economy is back on track, which is what we think," said Doug Sandler, Wachovia's chief equity strategist. "The two sides of the debate are: we are headed back to recession, or we are just in a soft patch."
For the big picture, the final numbers on second-quarter US gross domestic product are due out on Wednesday. A median forecast of economists polled by Reuters expects an annualised growth rate of 3.0 percent, compared with an earlier reading of 2.8 percent. In the first quarter of 2004, the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 4.5 percent.
On Thursday, the market will get a close look at consumer income and spending when the US Commerce Department announces August personal income data.
The data is expected to show a 0.3 percent rise in personal income last month, versus a 0.1 percent gain in July. Personal consumption is predicted to edge up 0.1 percent, compared with a rise of 0.8 percent in July.
As for company fundamentals, Wall Street has been fretting recently about the upcoming earnings season. Profit growth rates in the third quarter are expected to look weak against the recent three straight quarters of 20-percent-plus growth, analysts say.