BP Plc's oil and gas production rose 11 percent on the year in the third quarter but analysts expect strong earnings for the quarter to be mainly due to runaway oil prices rather than BP's record in finding oil.
BP produced around 3.88 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the quarter, with a strong rise in Russian output - up 36 percent on the year - offsetting falls elsewhere, the company said in a trading statement on Monday.
The drop in non-Russian output was partly due to Hurricane Ivan in the Gulf of Mexico and a fire at an Egyptian gas platform, but follows a pattern of weakness in recent quarters that analysts said BP needs to address in the fourth quarter.
Analysts said the figures were broadly in line with expectations and that oil prices well above $40 a barrel during the period suggested bumper third-quarter profits, details of which are due out on October 26.
BP, the world's second largest listed oil company, said it expected average production for 2004 to meet its previously stated target of above 4 million boepd.
"Overall it's quite positive on the upstream side, given that the company is on target for 4 million barrels a day output," Angus McPhail at ING said.
BP shares were up 0.2 percent at 541 pence at 1010 GMT.
Oil broke the $50 a barrel mark for the first time in September. Strong oil prices throughout 2004 have led to bumper profits at the oil majors.
BP said it would continue its share buyback programme, which has helped boost the stock this year. However, analysts said the extent of the programme would also hinge on whether BP can boost non-Russian production.