Dollar fails to break out ahead of jobs data

07 Oct, 2004

The dollar struggled to break out of narrow ranges on Wednesday as investors kept a wary eye on the impact of soaring oil prices on major economies and grew cautious before US job figures land later in the week.
Many market players were unwilling to take big positions ahead of the non-farm payrolls data, which offer a gauge of the strength of the US economy and are the last readings before the presidential election at the start of November.
With a lack of momentum in a directionless market, attempts to test resistance or support levels were quickly countered, keeping prices in tight ranges, dealers said.
"The market is feeling complacent and doesn't want to set the tone before the data," said a trader at a foreign securities firm.
Some Asian and Japanese accounts were seen selling dollars on the upside while US investors were seen buying on dips, the trader said.
The dollar bought around 111.08 yen, compared with 111.15 yen in late trade in New York.
The euro was at $1.2315, barely changed from the late US level. The single currency fetched 136.80 yen, also little different.
Oil traded around $51 a barrel, after striking a new high of $51.29 in New York due to speculative buying.
That put pressure on the yen, despite gains in Japanese shares, as Japan is seen more susceptible to higher oil prices than other countries due to its almost total reliance on imported oil.
"The rise in the Nikkei doesn't seem to be enough to buoy the yen right now, given uncertainty over the rise in crude," said Naomi Fink, senior currency analyst at BNP Paribas.
At the same time, some market players said that soaring oil prices had also begun to hurt the dollar, which had softened against the euro overnight on a bearish report on the US services sector.
The non-farm payrolls report for September, due on Friday, is expected to show 148,000 new US jobs, versus the 144,000 added in August.
Yet some analysts said the figures could be particularly volatile due to the impact of hurricanes that battered parts of the southern United States last month.
Many analysts said that despite much anticipation within the market, the employment data were unlikely to carve out a new direction for the dollar and its trading partners. "There isn't likely to be a shift in funds as a result of the jobs data," said a trader.

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