President George W. Bush holds a narrow two-point lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry less than four weeks before the November 2 presidential election, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Thursday.
Bush led the Massachusetts senator 46-44 percent in the initial three-day tracking poll, with eight percent of likely voters still undecided ahead of Friday's second face-to-face debate between the White House rivals in St. Louis, Missouri.
With the war in Iraq dominating the campaign agenda, Kerry opened a 51-39 percent lead over Bush among voters who cite Iraq as the top issue. Bush held a 68-26 percent lead among voters who cite the war on terror as the top issue.
But while Kerry once hoped the economy would give him a vital advantage, he has not been able to break away from Bush among voters worried about the topic.
"Kerry's edge on the economy is gone," pollster John Zogby said. "Among those who cite the economy as the top issue, the candidates are in a dead heat - Bush holding a slight edge" at 46-44 percent.
The national tracking poll of 1,217 likely voters, the first in a daily series that will continue through November 1, was taken Monday through Wednesday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen. The White House race has seesawed in the last month, with Bush opening a lead in most polls after the Republican convention in early September and Kerry surging back after last week's debate.
The Reuters/Zogby survey was taken after the debate, where Kerry aggressively questioned Bush's policies on Iraq and put the president on the defensive.
The new poll also was sandwiched around Tuesday's debate between Bush's and Kerry's running mates, Vice President Dick Cheney and Senator John Edwards, who sharply disagreed on Iraq and repeatedly traded personal attacks over their records and judgement.
Zogby said the poll reflected America's deep divisions going into the final month of the campaign. It found Kerry held a lead among young voters, single voters and voters in the eastern and western United States. Bush had advantages with married voters, voters aged 30 to 49, households with veterans or someone serving in the military, and in the South.
The two were tied among voters more than 50 years old, and in the central and Great Lakes region, site of key swing states like Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota.
The poll found 52 percent of voters had a negative view of Bush's job performance and 50 percent believed he should not be re-elected. That compared to 47 percent with a positive view and 44 percent who wanted Bush re-elected.
But Bush had a more solid grip on his base of support, earning the backing of 90 percent of Republicans. Kerry had the support of 76 percent of Democrats, but led among independents 45-40 percent.
The poll found independent candidate Ralph Nader, blamed by some Democrats for drawing enough votes from Democrat Al Gore to cost him the election in 2000, earning only 1.8 percent of the vote.