Emerging debt: weak jobs report sparks strong rally

10 Oct, 2004

Emerging market sovereign bond prices surged on Friday as a weaker-than-expected US payrolls report for September raised the possibility that the US Federal Reserve could slow the pace of interest rate hikes.
The news further eased fears of US interest rate hike surprises that could hurt the emerging sovereign asset class. "Everything's higher," said a New York trader.
Brazil's global 40, considered the benchmark emerging market bond, rose 1.688 points in price to bid 113.813, pushing its yield below 9 percent to 8.977 percent.
Russia's global 30 rose 1.687 points to bid 99.125, trimming its yield to 6.908 percent.
Turkey's global 30 rose 1.75 points to bid 138.750 at a yield of 8.211 percent. Spreads on the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus narrowed by six basis points to 398 over comparative US Treasury yields. Total returns surged 0.86 percent on the benchmark index. Brazil spreads narrowed 16 basis points to 441 over comparative US Treasuries. Russian spreads tightened by eight basis points to 260. Oil-producer Venezuela, which has also recently benefited from soaring oil prices, narrowed 19 basis points to 439.
US businesses added 96,000 jobs to payrolls in September, the government reported.
The September job-creation total came in below Wall Street economists' forecasts for 148,000 new jobs. Four hurricanes swept through the Southeast during August and September, which Labour said likely held down employment growth "but not enough to change materially" its estimate of September jobs.
The Labour Department report showed the unemployment rate in September held steady at 5.4 percent. Labour also said that, according to preliminary estimates, the economy added about 236,000 more jobs than previously thought in the year ended March 2004 and it will incorporate the change into benchmark revisions it issues next February.
Brazil's benchmark IPCA consumer inflation index rose 0.33 percent in September, slowing down from the previous month, as food prices fell at the end of southern hemisphere winter, official data showed on Friday.

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