US Treasury debt rallied on Friday as a weak employment report revived talk the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of interest rate increases.
The latest jobs data showed the economy is still not producing enough employment to absorb new entrants to the labour market, a boon to government debt.
The US economy created a modest 98,000 net new positions in September, allowing the benchmark 10-year Treasury note to jump 29/32 in price for a yield of 4.13 percent from 4.25 percent late on Thursday - the biggest one-day drop in yields in over two months.
Analysts still expect the Fed to move rates another quarter-percentage point higher in November, but the bad news on jobs seems to have further clouded the outlook for monetary policy into next year.
"There is a question of steady increases or taking a pause," said Steve Gallagher, an economist at SG Cowen. "I think this data supports a pause but we still have two more employment reports to consider before the December FOMC meeting so it's not over yet." Fed fund futures still point to a 25-basis-point hike to 2 percent at the November meeting, but suggest a far smaller probability of another such move in December. The market also curbed expectations for how quickly rates would rise in 2005.
The non-farm payrolls data came in well below forecasts of a 148,000 rise. August's outcome was revised downward, but that was matched by an upward revision to July jobs. The overall unemployment rate held at 5.4 percent as expected.
Adjusting to the latest employment outlook, two-year note yields dropped to 2.58 percent from 2.70 percent. Five-year notes climbed 19/32, lowering yields to 3.40 percent from 3.53 percent.The 30-year bond jumped 1-15/32, taking its yield to 4.90 percent from 4.99 percent, reflecting speculation that interest rates might not rise next year as much as feared.
The market's enthusiasm was curbed by benchmark revisions to March 2004, which the Bureau of Labour Statistics said would amount to an upward adjustment of 236,000 to the level of employment. But analysts found it to find a bright side to the employment figures.
"The economy must create at least 150,000 jobs each month to keep up with labour force growth, and the average number of jobs created each month since May was 103,000," noted Peter Morici, a Professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business.
On Thursday, both Fed Governor Ben Bernanke and Dallas Fed President Robert McTeer acknowledged that a slowdown in the US economy could justify a pause in the Fed's interest rate increases.
At the same time, they were optimistic that economic growth would run at a solid 3.5 percent to 4.0 percent over the next year or so. Many analysts have recently revised up forecasts for growth last quarter to 4.0 percent or more, thanks mainly to strong consumer spending on cars.