Dollar falls against yen and euro

12 Oct, 2004

The dollar fell to a one-month low against the yen and held near a recent one-week low versus the euro on Monday after weak US jobs data raised questions about future interest rate hikes in the United States.
On Friday, the dollar lost more than a cent against the euro when payrolls data showed the US economy creating far fewer jobs than expected, adding fuel to speculation the Federal Reserve could pause in its gradual rate-hike campaign.
There was little new data available to take the market's attention away from the disappointing jobs figures on Monday, and trading was thin due to market holidays in Japan and the United States.
"The background trend for the dollar is weakness," said Ian Gunner, head of foreign exchange research at Mellon Bank in London.
"The only big question is whether there can be another cyclical rally for the dollar. And the longer we get this drip feed of bad data, the more likely it is euro/dollar will have to give on the topside."
At 1130 GMT the dollar traded a quarter of a percent down on the day at 109.22 yen, after hitting its lowest level since September 10, at 109.17 earlier in the session.
It was steady against the euro at $1.2397, compared with Friday's one-week low of $1.2433 per euro. The single currency was seen meeting heavy resistance as it approached $1.2460, the upper end of its range since February.
Meanwhile, sterling rose to a one-week high against the dollar at $1.7969 and also bounced higher versus the euro after data showed UK factory gate inflation hitting an eight-year high in September due to soaring oil prices.
Despite the disappointing jobs data, which showed employers hiring 96,000 workers in September and not the 148,000 expected, US Federal Reserve officials have continued to make upbeat comments about the economic outlook.
Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern said in a interview with Reuters on Friday that interest rates would continue to rise in a gradual manner.
But analysts said there were increasing concerns the US economic recovery may not be robust enough to attract sufficient foreign investment to offset the country's large current account deficit. "The dollar has an overall weak bias today," said Tim Fox, market strategist at National Australia Bank in London.
"People were looking to cyclical positives to offset the structural problems. But the data on Friday highlighted the fact that the positives are not as strong," he said.
Despite the euro's stronger tone recently, a senior European official said the currency's strength was no longer the concern it had been last year for the continent's economy.
Instead, he said high oil prices were a key worry as costly fuel threatens to boost inflation and hurt growth.

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