Oil prices fall sharply, base metals shrug off China rate hike

31 Oct, 2004

World oil prices endured a volatile week, hitting record high points before tumbling on easing supply worries and profit-taking ahead of US presidential elections, while China's rate hike dampened sentiment.
Gold soared to a 16-year high and silver a six-month peak, lifted by the dollar's slide against the euro. Base metals meanwhile fought off the rate move by China, whose runaway economy has shown a voracious appetite for commodities.
The Commodities Research Bureau's index of 17 commodities dropped to 283.86 points on Friday from 287.01 a week earlier.
GOLD: Gold prices surged to 429.15 dollars, the highest fixing for 16 years as the US currency slumped close to an all-time low against the euro and oil reached record summits.
Gold jumped by more than six dollars per ounce at Monday's morning fixing to hit the highest level since December 1988.
The precious metal saw some volatility after China raised interest rates for the first time in nine years.
China's central bank Thursday raised its benchmark one-year lending rate to 5.58 percent from 5.31 percent. The one-year deposit rate was hiked, also by 27 basis points, to 2.25 percent.
"The reality is that Chinese demand has not been major drivers of gold or silver prices, so there is no direct implication from the interest rate hike," said Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi.
Kevin Crisp, an analyst at the brokerage firm Koch Metals Trading, said gold could benefit from its status as a safe haven with the US presidential election just days away.
"Many participants still believe that gold is poised to go higher. We've got the US elections coming up next week, so we are going to have volatile markets and gold may benefit from that. Buying gold is a safety net against what might happen."
He added: "Gold has seen a continued mirroring of the euro/dollar."
A weaker dollar makes gold, which is priced in the US currency on world markets, more attractive to buyers using other currencies. Gold is also seen as a good hedge against fluctuations in the value of the dollar.
The single European currency broke above 1.28 dollars on Monday for the first time in eight months, coming close to a record peak of 1.2929 set on February 18.
The dollar has fallen heavily against the euro on fears over how the United States will fund its ballooning current account and budget deficits, particularly when record oil prices are likely to dampen growth.
By late Friday, gold prices rose to 425.55 dollars per ounce on the London Bullion Market, from 422.80 a week earlier.
SILVER: Silver prices jumped to fresh six-month high points in the wake of the strong showing by gold.
Silver rose to as high as 7.44 dollars an ounce on Monday, the highest fixing since April 13.
"Silver mirrored the volatile moves in the gold," said James Moore, an analyst for the specialist website TheBullionDesk.com.
Silver, which as well as being a precious metal is also used heavily by industry, took a knock later in the week following brief falls by base metals, affected by China's move to increase borrowing costs. Silver prices fell to 7.160 dollars per ounce on Friday at the fixing against 7.205 a week earlier.
PLATINUM AND PALLADIUM: Platinum prices declined as the market worried about the impact of China's rate rises on the country's jewellery sales.
"For the platinum market, where China plays a very key role in particular in the jewellery sector, higher interest rates might feed through into constraining consumer spending on luxury goods," Crisp said.
"Palladium is in a period of inertness, though still holding above 200 dollars. It doesn't seem to be sending any signal one way or another." By Friday, platinum prices had dropped to 835 dollars per ounce on the London Platinum and Palladium Market, against 840 dollars a week earlier.
Palladium prices dollars stood at 213 per ounce compared with 214 the previous week.
BASE METALS: Base metals prices recovered from initial falls caused by China's rate move, standing up well amid strong supply and demand fundamentals and the threat of strikes by miners in South America, analysts said.
Base metals fell by 3.0 percent in the immediate aftermath of the policy decision by Beijing, before rallying.
"Solid price support suggests only a limited impact on Chinas metal consumption is expected at this stage given only a small interest rate hike," said Barclays Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby.
"This also reflects strong metal market fundamentals, in light of extremely low global metal inventories, modest production growth and robust underlying demand."
Base metals prices recently saw a sharp retreat from multi-year highs.
"Fresh peaks might now be less likely, given increased caution from consumers and investors, but fundamentals will continue to underpin prices," Sternby said.
Prices won support also from the threat of possible strikes by copper mine workers in Chile and Peru. By Friday, three-month copper prices stood at 2,825 dollars per tonne on the London Metal Exchange against 2,804 dollars a week earlier.
Three-month aluminium prices rose to 1,795 dollars per tonne from 1,744.
Three-month nickel prices climbed to 13,400 dollars per tonne from 13,250.
Three-month lead prices gained to 878 dollars per tonne from 852.
Three-month zinc prices edged up 1,042 dollars per tonne from 1,039.
Three-month tin prices rallied to 9,000 dollars per tonne from 8,880.
OIL: Crude oil futures rode a rollercoaster, reaching all-time peaks at the start of the week before falling almost 8.0 percent in two days in the wake of a sharp jump in US crude stockpiles that eased fears of a winter supply crunch.
New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December, hit a record peak of 55.67 dollars a barrel in electronic deals on Monday amid fears a strike could cripple supplies from Norway, the world's third-largest oil exporter.
But prices slid as the Norwegian government intervened to resolve the oil-industry dispute.
Prices rebounded sharply, however, with Brent North Sea crude oil briefly reaching a high of 51.94 dollars after the US Energy Department said commercial heating oil inventories fell for the sixth straight week.
The mood later switched again as news sunk in that crude oil inventories had climbed by an unexpectedly large four million barrels, sending prices into a two-day downward spiral before steadying.
New York's main contract tumbled 1.54 dollars, or 2.9 percent, to finish at 50.92 dollars a barrel on Thursday, a loss of 7.7 percent since Tuesday's close.
"With crude stocks having built up last week, it means that US refiners are in a good position to cope with the winter demand on heating oil," Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski said.
Analysts said prices fell also because of speculators banking profits ahead of Tuesday's US presidential election and a surprise move by China to hike interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade.
"The basis of (the recent oil price rise) has been growth in demand in China in particular," Fimat USA analyst John Kilduff said.
New York's light sweet crude for delivery in December plunged to 51.40 dollars per barrel on Friday against 55.22 a week earlier.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for December delivery skidded to 48.15 dollars per barrel from 51.25 a week earlier.
RUBBER: Rubber prices were steady as demand held up and supplies appeared ample despite wet weather in major producers.
"It is a fairly stable market," a trader in London said.
"Pockets of demand are holding the price up. Supply is still affected by the rainy season, but there is no shortage as such."
In Osaka, the RSS 3 December contract dropped to 136.40 US cents on Friday from 139.30 a week earlier.
Singapore's RSS 3 January contract stood at 127 cents from 127.25 the previous Friday.
COCOA: Cocoa futures rose as speculators waded into the market in response to signs that farmers in Ivory Coast might resume their marketing blockade.
Cocoa producers rejected a government proposal to begin funding farmer co-operatives and threatened to disrupt supplies again.
Producers in Ivory Coast, the source of 40 percent of the world's cocoa, have been protesting in Abidjan and elsewhere about the way the distribution network operates, complaining that the state and middlemen are making excessive profits through the tax system.
"Most traders do not put a lot of stock in the saying power of the farmer action to lift prices, but mounting unrest in Ivory Coast, quality problems, and reports of European shortage cannot help but be supportive near term," said Refco analyst Ann Prendergast.
On Liffe, London's futures exchange, the price of cocoa for March delivery climbed to 858 pounds per tonne from 844 a week earlier.
On the CSCE, the New York futures market, the December contract gained to 1,465 dollars per tonne from 1,451 the previous week.
COFFEE: Coffee prices won support from worries that the Brazilian harvest might come in smaller than expected.
"The market is supported by uncertainty over the size of the Brazil 2005/06 crop, which, although it is expected to be cyclically reduced may suffer greater than expected loss because of dry weather damage and stunting of older trees," Prendergast said.
On Liffe, Robusta quality for January eased to 591 dollars per tonne on Friday from 595 a week earlier.
On New York's CSCE market, Arabica for December delivery climbed to 78.35 cents per pound from 75.50.
COTTON: Cotton futures remained on a backfoot, pressured by disappointing US export sales and concerns about Chinese demand in the wake of the interest rate hike there.
US cotton export sales fell by 61 percent to 72,500 bales in the week to October 21 from the previous week, the US Department of Agriculture reported.
New York's December contract dropped to 45.48 cents per pound on Friday from 46.25 a week earlier.
The Cotton Outlook Index of physical cotton stood at 52.20 cents on Thursday from 52.85 the previous week.
GRAINS AND SOYA: Grains and soya prices were shored up by good demand and delays to harvesting in the US Midwest.
Wheat also garnered support from dry weather in Australia that traders said could prove harmful to crops, and from solid US export sales figures of 431,000 tonnes for the week to October 21.
Signs that Pakistan might place an order for up to one million tonnes of wheat also boosted market sentiment, traders said.
"Wheat and corn are going higher and soybeans are going lower based on (technical) charts," said Victor Lespinasse, of AG Edwards trading house.
"The fundamentals are very cloudy. A lot is going to depend on what China does, and South American weather is good right now, but theres still a long way to go."
On Liffe, wheat for November delivery rose to 65.50 pounds per tonne on Friday from 64.90 dollars the previous week.
In Chicago, the price of wheat for December delivery advanced to 322.50 cents per bushel from 311.50.
Maize for December delivery stood at 205.50 cents per bushel from 203.75.
Soyabeans for November delivery nudged up to 528.50 cents per bushel from 528.
December-dated soyabean meal - used in animal feed - eased to 154.70 dollars per tonne from 158.
SUGAR: Sugar futures weakened further on speculative selling, with China's decision to tighten monetary policy sowing jitters over demand.
By Friday on Liffe, the price of a tonne of white sugar for March delivery dipped to 249.9 dollars from 255 a week earlier.
On the CSCE in New York, a pound of unrefined sugar for March delivery fell to 8.64 cents from 8.96 the previous week.
WOOL: Wool prices in leading producer Australia remained resilient despite an appreciation of the local dollar against its US counterpart.
"It was a good market in which the rise in the EMI (benchmark Eastern Market Indicator) continued to withstand the upward pressure on exchange rates," the Australian Wool Industries Secretariat said.
By Thursday, the Australian dollar had risen by 1.6 percent against the greenback from a week earlier, it noted.
"Buying was led by China and the topmakers," the secretariat said.
The Australian Eastern index stood at 7.45 Australian dollars per kilo on Thursday, unchanged from a week earlier.
The British Wooltops index climbed to 400 pence from 394.

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