Indian shares seen firm, bonds await supply

01 Nov, 2004

Indian shares are expected to firm this week as worries over the impact of a rate increase in China abate while steady domestic inflation and a pullback in global oil prices boost sentiment, traders said. The Bombay Stock Exchange index ended trade on Friday at 5,672.27 points, up 0.5 percent on the week. It is down 2.9 percent so far this year.
India's state-run oil firms reviewed retail prices of petrol and diesel on the weekend. Domestic fuel rates have been stagnant since August 1. Auto and cement makers are expected to post strong monthly sales numbers during the week.
"We will see company-specific action from here on," said Ketan Jhaveri, a director at DH Securities.
"We fancy steel shares like SAIL and TISCO, which are available at attractive valuations," he said.
State-run Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) and privately managed Tata Iron and Steel Company Ltd (TISCO) are India's top two steel makers.
Both ended weaker on Friday, despite reporting strong quarterly earnings growth, on worries that an increase in interest rates in China could depress global commodity prices.
India's annual inflation rate, measured by wholesale prices, was unchanged at 7.10 percent in the year to October 16. While the rate has surged from 4.32 percent in April, it has come off a three-and-a-half year high of over eight percent at end-August.
Traders will also be awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election on Tuesday.
Bonds may trade in a broad range this week as the market tries to find its way after last week's volatility, brought on by a surprise interest rate rise.
Last week, India's central bank raised its overnight repo rate by 25 basis points for the first time in more than four years, citing concerns about a sharp rise in inflation.
The benchmark 10-year federal bond yield could hover between 6.75 percent and 7.00 percent through the week, said S.P. Prabhu, analyst with IDBI Capital Market Services.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond ended the week at 6.8605 percent, against 6.6122 percent a week earlier.

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