Soya lower on cash movement and positioning

13 Nov, 2004

Soyabean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Thursday, setting back after on Wednesday's rally on fears about the future of US soya production after the first case of soya rust was found in the mainland United States, traders said. The 30-cent rally in soyabeans on Wednesday triggered big farmer sales of beans over the past two days. That pressured soyabean futures as well as soyameal, floor traders said.
"Enough soyabeans moved to get crushers covered through the second week of December," one CBOT floor broker said.
CBOT soyabean futures closed 2-1/2 to 8 cents per bushel lower. But the November/January spread held firm, underpinned by no deliveries overnight. Registrations with the CBOT late on Wednesday remained at zero.
On Friday is the last trading day for the November contract. November settled 2-1/2 cents lower at $5.20-1/2, while January closed 5-1/4 cents weaker at $5.19-3/4. Traders were also squaring positions before on Friday's USDA November crop estimate.
Most anticipate the USDA to raise its 2004 US crop estimate from 3.1 billion bushels forecast last month. Local traders were featured sellers late in the session. Funds were buyers but by the close lightened their net buying to 1,000 contracts, traders said.
The cash market was steady to weaker at interior Midwest locations on Thursday after soya movement picked up since CBOT futures rallied on Wednesday, traders said. CBOT soyameal futures closed $2.20 to $4 per ton lower, with December down $4 at $149.90.
Some analysts expected USDA on Friday to raise its US soya crush estimate to meet a likely increase in soyaoil demand.
That would mean a huge jump in meal stocks, which added to the bearish sentiment in the meal pit. Passage of the corporate tax bill last month created tax credits for biodiesel, paving the way for soyaoil use to rise.
The soyaoil market closed 0.22 to 0.35 cent per lb lower on a downward adjustment after the rally on Wednesday.
December was down 0.30 at 20.49 cents. Malaysian palm oil futures were closed overnight for a holiday and reopen on November 17.
Commodity funds were big sellers in both soyameal and soyaoil of roughly 1,500 to 2,000 lots. Commercials were active on both sides in the products. The CBOT January crush margin closed 6.3 cents lower at 40.15 cents per bushel due to the weakness in the products.

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