Eurostocks week ahead: Vodafone dividend on lookout

14 Nov, 2004

Vodafone tops the earnings menu next week with the biggest mobile phone company by revenue under pressure to hand back more cash to shareholders - a move which would help bourses build on 28-month highs. Other standouts will be results from steel giant Arcelor on Monday, seen as a litmus test of demand in commodities hotspot China.
Benelux financial group Dexia reports on Tuesday when there will also be a sales update from Swedish clothing retailer Hennes & Mauritz.
This week the European stock market rose above its long-held trading range to hit its best level since July 2002 as it put a clear-cut US presidential election and a much-anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike behind it.
The new-found upside momentum was supported by US crude oil prices easing from record highs and an earnings season that largely met expectations.
More market gains are likely according to some observers.
"Things look okay, but the main worry is the strength of the euro, which if it kept strengthening, would be materially negative for European economies and pour more cold water on things," said Barry Dargan, a fund manager at MFS Investment Management.
The single currency hit a new record high above $1.30 this week, putting pressure on export earnings of euro zone companies and injecting deflationary pressures into an already sluggish Euroland economy.
"I do think that over time we will continue to see decent momentum in the market because things look pretty good with two global engines, the United States and China. I would think the outlook for equities is better than for bonds," Dargan said.
But not all investors were equally convinced.
"It's hard to see what the real drivers will be going into next year as interest rates will move gradually higher in the United States and that will form a major headwind for equities," said Edwin Slaghekke, a fund manager at Theodoor Gilissen Bankiers in Amsterdam.
Financial markets are already pricing in another quarter percentage point Fed rate hike in December.
Analysts estimate that Vodafone, which reports first-half results on Tuesday, will amass a 7 billion pound cashpile in this financial year and, with no major acquisitions in sight, be forced to hand much of it back to shareholders.
"We believe that material increases in near-term dividends and buy-backs in the future are inevitable," said Hira Fanos, who tracks Vodafone at Bear Stearns investment bank.
Bear Stearns forecasts an interim dividend up 85 percent at 1.76 pence, a total payout of 5.4 billion pounds in financial year 2005, and that the buy-back is extended by a further 11 billion pounds over the next three years.
Smaller UK mobile phone operator mmO2 reports on Wednesday and Deutsche Bank said a cash payback to shareholders could provide some spice as it expects the group to have no net debt by year end.
Elsewhere, German luxury carmaker Porsche reports on Monday, followed by Swiss Air Lines and Finnair on Tuesday.
French bank Credit Agricole, media group Vivendi Universal and Dutch publisher Wolters Kluwer unveil their scorecards on Wednesday. The world's second-largest catering firm, Sodexho Alliance reports on Thursday, along with French engineering firm Alstom, UK retailer GUS, and Swedish insurer Skandia.
On the economic data front, the release of the first estimate of third-quarter growth in France on Friday will be keenly watched after Germany's figure surprised on the downside.
Deutsche Bank expects next week's US figures to point to milder growth than at the start of the year.
US headline producer and consumer inflation number will also be of interest.
"Both consumer and producer prices are expected to be up sharply in October, but this is due largely to higher oil prices, and core inflation remains reasonably subdued," Deutsche Bank said in a note to clients.

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