CURRENT TOPICS: Post-mortem of elections-2004

20 Nov, 2004

If it was a "Cliff-hanger" then Rambo has triumphed. But not to live happily as the hero of the Hollywood flick by that name. Bush has won only to face a plethora of problems on the agenda. His own country and the international community expect him to finish what he had foolishly started to avenge 9/11 and which has culminated into the morass of Iraq war.
Every sitting president in USA wants to stay on for the second term and Bush was no exception. His father Bush senior had won the Gulf war and yet lost election against an unknown Democrat Clinton, the governor of little known state of Arkansas. George W Bush had made a mess of War in Iraq and he was now required to face John. F. Kerry, an aristocratic senator from Boston, the home of the illustrious and legendary Kennedys. Political circles in Washington and the State capitals were, therefore, familiar with him.
Four years back Bush had to contest Gore the team-mate of Clinton's second term in office. The agonies of the confusion in the count at Florida and the nerve racking law suits that followed must still be haunting Bush. This time with the nomination of Kerry, Bush must have felt more confident.
And why not? He believed that after a faltering start, he had risen to great heights, responding to the public clamour for revenge following the foreign inflicted havoc of 11th September. As Commander-in-Chief he had successfully led the US forces to punish Taleban of Afghanistan who had harboured Osama-bin-Laden the prime suspect for the great tragedy, and had gone on to banish the tyrant Saddam who had oppressed his own people and posed a threat to America and its ally Israel.
Under the circumstances Kerry, whose Vietnam War record did not stand up to scrutiny, was not much of a challenge. Initially the press and public too did not think much of his chances as he was considered wishy washy and a flip-flopper. His campaign too was lacklustre and uninspiring. Bush was, therefore, sitting pretty - smug like a bug in the rug. But suddenly the Kerry campaign gathered steam and Kerry got the second wind to go into attack.
Having voted for war in the Senate, he could not say that ab-initio it was wrong. But short of that he came down on Bush like a ton of bricks on the ill-advised and arrogant conduct of war which had resulted into America losing the initiative after initial success and getting caught into the quagmire of local insurgency.
Kerry charged Bush with overconfidence and failing to take along the allies with him in prosecuting the war in Iraq. There was already an anti-war lobby in America and now people started listening to Kerry. He scored heavily in the first one-to-one debate. Bush faired a little better in subsequent meets, but Kerry came through as knowledgeable and intellectually superior. He gained in opinion polls as well and on the eve of election most analysts called the race neck and neck and too close to call.
Now that the results are out and Kerry has conceded defeat, all is over bar the shouting. As against 2000 which Bush had managed to scrape through by the skin of his teeth, this time the count was 51:48. Actually Bush secured 3.5 million more popular votes than Kerry. However, due to complex electoral college system he had to remain in suspense until Ohio gave him 20 votes to make 276 out of 538 to be declared winner.
Apparently the Republicans have triumphed as they have improved their strength in the Senate as well as Congress. It indicates that the majority of people who constitute voting blocs tend towards conservatism in preference to liberalism of Democrats. It seems that Bush having been accepted as born again Christian, the evangelists solidly voted for him throughout the country.
The security conscious public who had seen World Trade Towers collapse like a house of cards with their own eyes, were grateful to Bush for taking the fight into enemy camp and backed him whole heatedly. Kerry campaign mainly targeted Bush's failed foreign policy almost to the exclusion of domestic issues - economy, deficits, taxes, unemployment, health and social security - which went by default. Perhaps the democrats may admit in hindsight that the failure to exploit Bush's weaknesses on the domestic front may have cost them the election.
Different people have different expectations from re-elected George W. Bush. Speaking of the citizens of America, all would like him to end the war in Iraq honourably and bring the troops back home. It is easily said than done. But a beginning can be made by removing some senior officials in the administration whose strategic, logistic and policy mistakes have caused chaos in Iraq. In this respect Rumsfeld should be on top of the list, among other things responsible for Abu Gharaib and Guantanamo - the biggest black marks on America's image abroad.

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