Global sugar demand is seen rising steadily over the next decade, with growth strongest in Asia, two industry analysts said on Tuesday. Martin Todd, director of UK constancy LMC, told a conference he expected global sugar consumption over the next decade to grow by around three million tonnes a year, an increase of some 1.5 percent on average, mainly in Asia.
Global sugar consumption is now put at around 140 million tonnes a year. "There will be tremendous growth in Indian sugar consumption," Todd said, referring to India's expected population growth and urbanisation.
Jonathan Drake, leader of US trader Cargill's world sugar business unit, said in a later presentation he expected world sugar demand to grow by 2.3 percent a year on average over the next decade.
"Sugar is a growth industry. It is not an industry in decline," said Drake, who is based in Geneva.
Todd said that a slowing of world population growth and a saturation of consumption in central and South America might limit sugar demand growth potential over the next decade.
Todd predicted strong growth in demand for ethanol, which can be derived from sugar, grains or biomes and used as a bifocal.
He said demand for flex-fuel cars, which can be powered using ethanol, is soaring in Brazil, the world's biggest sugar producer, and could double there over the next decade.
Other countries such as Colombia and Thailand have recently launched fuel ethanol programmes, auguring well for consumption of cane-based ethanol, Todd said.
Ethanol has a bright future as a bifocal due to concerns over possible sustained high prices for fossil fuels, as well as environmental worries over global warming, analysts said.
Drake said he expected weakening sugar import demand in Russia, currently the world's biggest raw sugar importer, over the next decade, as its population declines.
Consumption could outpace production in China over the next decade as the country urbanises and sugar demand in the cities rises, Drake added.
He said India, now the world's biggest sugar consumer, which is raising import demand, should eventually regain its historical self-sufficiency but that could take several years as the country recovers output after successive poor harvests.
The two-day conference organised by the International Sugar Organisation (ISO), ends on Wednesday.