India on Monday forecast a sharply lower grains output and a marginal dip in oilseeds due to poor rains but the country is unlikely to face food shortages or see a spurt in edible oil imports. A government statement said on Monday total grains output in 2004/05 (July-June) is likely to dip to 206.39 million tonnes from 212.06 million tonnes in the previous year, with the biggest drop expected in coarse cereals and maize.
Farm ministry officials earlier were optimistic of a record wheat crop boosting total grains output to 212 million tonnes.
The winter grains crop, hit by poor rains, was estimated at 102.94 million tonnes, down from 112.05 million tonnes a year ago while the summer output was forecast at 103.45 million tonnes compared with 100 million tonnes in the previous summer.
The ministry estimates wheat production to rise to 73.03 million tonnes from 72 million tonnes a year ago while rice output is likely to rise to 87.80 million tonnes from 87 million.
Coarse cereals output is seen dropping to 31.88 million tonnes from 37.77 million tonnes in 2003/04.
Rice, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane and coarse cereals are among the major winter crops sown in July and harvested in November and December. Wheat, oilseeds and pulses are the main summer crops grown in November and harvested in March and April.
Agriculture makes up nearly 25 percent of GDP and provides a livelihood to nearly two-thirds of India's billion-plus people. The sector relies on good rains because of a poor irrigation system.
Economists had projected the Indian economy, Asia's fourth-largest, to expand between 6.5 and 7 percent in the fiscal year through March, higher than previously forecast.
They had downgraded their expectations for growth to 5.5 percent to 6 percent after weak monsoon rains in 2004. But they had said the summer harvest would help cushion the damage.
"The government's estimates of wheat and rice are very realistic," said G. Chandrasekhar, a Bombay-based analyst. "But we need to wait for the next estimates for wheat crop because yields will go up if temperatures stay cool. And if the weather gets hot we might even fall below last year's level."
The winter harvested crops were hit badly after erratic rains in the June-September 2004 monsoon season. July was virtually dry raising fears of a drought, but late rains helped and also added soil moisture for the summer crops.
The ministry said oilseeds output is expected to fall slightly to 24.84 million tonnes in the 2004/05 (October-September) crop year from 25.14 million tonnes a year ago.
The ministry said winter oilseed output is expected to fall to 14.7 million tonnes from 17 million tonnes a year ago while summer oilseed output is likely to rise to 10.08 million tonnes from 8.13 million tonnes in the last season.
Rapeseed is expected to account for a major chunk of the summer crop with output estimated at 7.59 million tonnes, sharply up from 5.8 million tonnes a year ago.
"Overall it is a good crop despite a bad monsoon," said B.V. Mehta, an official of the Solvent Extractors Association of India. "The production of summer oilseeds is increasing because the area under oilseed crops has gone up."
According to industry estimates, the country is expected to buy 4.5 million tonnes of vegetable oil this year ending in October, against earlier estimates of 5 million tonnes because of the good crop.
India imported 4.4 million tonnes of edible oil in 2003/04.