The election held in Iraq on Sunday under the supervision of occupation forces has produced a commonly predicted outcome, further deepening the country's old divisions along ethnic and sectarian lines. While the preliminary results are to be announced in six or seven days time and the final results in ten days, the success of the election is being measured by the voter turnout. According to election officials, it was above expectations though they do not have precise numbers to quote.
In fact, they had originally claimed the figure of 72 percent but then backtracked to put it at slightly above 60 percent. There is no way of independent verification of these figures, since due to fear of violence the international monitors remained ensconced in the safety of the neighbouring Jordan.
It is also important to note that these figures take into account only those Iraqis who had registered themselves as voters. Since the major Sunni parties, and even the Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadre's group, had announced boycott of the elections - according to Muqtada in sympathy with Sunni sentiments - a large number of people did not even bother to register themselves as voters.
However, press reports say that voter turnout was heavy in the Shia dominated areas as well as the Kurdish north. Which is not surprising since the Shia supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, had advised his community which comprises 60 percent of the population, to participate in the election. The Kurds, who are 20 percent of the country's population and have enjoyed substantial autonomy for quite some time, thanks to US support, too turned out in force to cast their votes.
In fact, for many of them it was a step towards further assertion of their independence, a desire they openly expressed by asking voters to sign a petition that called for an independent Kurdish state. But the rest of the 20 percent people, consisting of the Sunnis, the traditional ruling elite of the country, almost completely boycotted the polls.
Thus even if the overall voter participation comes to a respectable figure, it cannot be seen as representative of the country's population.
US President George W. Bush, of course, has declared the election as a "resounding success". His ally in the illegal and immoral occupation of Iraq, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, echoed that declaration of success saying, "The force of freedom has been felt throughout the country."
These may be fine rhetorical statements but have little to do with on the ground reality. Besides, the main task of the new assembly is to draft a new constitution. With Sunnis having negligible, if any, representation in it, such an exercise will be devoid of legitimacy. The Sunnis will continue to defy the new dispensation, challenging its legitimacy and eroding its ability to function smoothly.
So far, the three main ethno-sectarian communities have avoided clashing with one another, but things may not remain peaceful among them for long. And those who have been warning of the break-up of Iraq into three states may prove to be right. Iraq's neighbours are not going to like such a scenario, and would want to intervene to secure their respective interests, destabilising the whole region.
So far the leaders of the three communities, aware of the dangers of a civil war, have been emphasising their desire to live in a united Iraq. But much of what is to come in the days ahead will depend on the plans of the occupying powers.
If they intend to rely on the colonisers' age-old policy of divide and rule, that is not going to work in Iraq as the events of the past two years have amply demonstrated. If internal strife starts, it will make the country even more ungovernable. The main issue for the people of Iraq is occupation, which has led to so much violence, the complete breakdown of law and order as well as civil amenities.
Things will not improve unless the occupation comes to an end. The Americans, no doubt, would like to stay in Iraq for some more time to ensure that their favourites get important positions in the new power structure, but such an attempt will only generate more resentment and instability.
It would therefore be wise for the US to use the election as a basis for an exit strategy, and announce a timetable for the complete withdrawal of all occupation troops from that unfortunate country.