India's quest for energy for its booming economy has revived the prospect of gas pipelines from Pakistan, part of improving relations between the former foes. But security concerns on that route for delivering Iranian gas, which are also likely to threaten a plan to pump Turkmen gas via Afghanistan and Pakistan. A link from Myanmar via Bangladesh might prove to be more likely, analysts said. Last week India's cabinet approved holding talks with producers Iran, Myanmar and Turkmenistan to lay gas pipelines.
Yet the Pakistan pipeline plan appeared to revive this week when India's Foreign Minister Natwar Singh said in Islamabad that India would consider joining the proposed Iran-Pakistan line.
Singh also discussed the Afghan option with President Hamid Karzai in Kabul this week but analysts said the passage across the troubled country made it more risky.
Supporters of the projects said pipelines would help soothe relations between the South Asian nuclear powers. Moves to improve Pakistan-India ties, including this week's first visit by an Indian foreign minister to Islamabad for bilateral talks in 16 years, are the raising hopes.
OPPOSITION:
India's former oil minister, Ram Naik, whose Hindu-nationalist government kicked off the peace process with Islamabad before it was voted out of power, opposing pipelines across Pakistan said, "It is ill-advised. The safety and security environment is not strong enough for India to go for such a gamble."
It would be foolhardy to expect secure gas supplies, particularly if India-Pakistan relations deteriorated, Naik said adding, "to expect that in times when the relations are not very friendly, Pakistan will protect, is a daydream."
A former Indian Ambassador to Pakistan, G. Parthasarthy said, "I have my own concerns about the security implications of these projects. We will have to negotiate a very strong penalty clause."
He cited reports of Pakistani tribesmen attacking rockets on pipelines, power plants and telephone lines in Balochistan and said, "It needs serious security examination." Disgruntled tribesmen in south-western Balochistan are demanding more autonomy and greater share of natural resources.
Investment analyst Abdul Azeem at brokerage house Investcap Securities in Karachi, said the concerns about violence in Balochistan should not derail the project.
"Security is a risk in Balochistan but not in the long term. They need more money and if they get more money, it will become peaceful," he said adding, "In comparison the security is a bigger risk in Afghanistan so the option at least for now is the pipeline from Iran."
A senior Pakistani government official, who asked not to be named, said steps could be taken to assure gas supplies. "The threat or risks to the pipeline can be overcome, India can establish storage capacity and so can we," he said.
India is aggressively seeking energy supplies for its economy, expected to grow seven to eight percent for the next two decades, while its oil demand is set to grow about five percent a year.
India produces less than half the gas it needs, and imports 70 percent of its crude oil requirement. New Delhi is competing with China for stakes in foreign petroleum assets and wooing foreign firms to drill for oil and gas.
Aware of the risks involved in pipeline projects, India started importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar last year, and recently signed a contract to import 7.5 million tonnes a year from Iran from 2009.
LNG is more costly than gas imported through pipelines, but some say supply security is worth the extra cost.