Iran hints at Opec output rollover

08 Mar, 2005

Iran, host of Opec's next ministerial meeting on March 16, hinted on Monday that the oil cartel would probably leave its 27 million barrels a day (bpd) production ceiling unchanged due to scorching prices. "There are two choices for ministers meeting in Isfahan: either to reduce by 1 or 1.5 million (barrels a day) to meet the shortfall in demand in the second quarter, or let it go as it is," Iran's Opec Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili told a news conference. "At $53 (a barrel), any cut may send the wrong signal to the market," he said.
"Leaving the situation as is and going for the current level of production ... I think that is what may be the position of the majority of the ministers," he added.
Kazempour had already signalled on Sunday that Iran did not think Opec ministers who will meet in the central Iranian city of Isfahan next week were obliged to consider an output increase to cool scorching prices. Venezuela and Qatar have also said the oil cartel does not need to raise output above its current ceiling of 27 million barrels a day (bpd).
Kazempour added that Iran was happy with the current level of oil prices and thinks Opec should keep its $22-28 a barrel price band target suspended rather than change it.
"We are satisfied with the level of prices right now," he said. "We are in favour of continuing the suspension (of the price band) ... It is better not to change it," he added.
Oil prices held above $53 a barrel on Monday, after rising more than 18 percent in the last month on signals that strong demand growth and disappointing supply forecasts will keep supply under strain this year.
Opec's President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah said in a statement on Sunday that the group is concerned by the recent rise in oil prices but believe the market is well supplied.
"Opec is concerned about this price development despite the fact that the market is well-supplied and global crude oil stocks have continued to build, now standing above their five-year average," Sheikh Ahmad said in the statement.
Nigeria's top oil official said on Friday that Opec could leak more supply above officials quotas in response to the high prices.
Opec is already pumping above its limit of 27 million barrels per day (bpd) at about 27.63 million bpd in February, a Reuters survey showed on Friday.
Saudi Arabia accounted for a little more than three-quarters of the leakage above the formal ceiling, with production rising 190,000 bpd from January.

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