German analyst F.O. Licht on Monday cut its estimate for global sugar output in September/August 2004/05 by 1.8 million tonnes to 146.2 million, and said supplies were not "critically tight." Despite the revision lower, the 2004/05 output estimate is still 2.5 million tonnes more than in the previous year, Licht said in its second estimate of the world sugar balance 2004/05.
"While our underlying balance assessment suggests a slightly tighter situation, supplies are not critically tight as has been the case in a number of earlier years," Licht said in a statement.
Licht said the statistical deficit (production minus consumption including unrecorded disappearance) could be slightly more than one million tonnes this year after 2.9 million in 2003/04.
Licht said a draw down of stocks during 2004/05 was possible as total demand for sugar could be around 147-148 million tonnes.
Brazil continues its role as the dominant producer/exporter of sugar in the world and this is likely to continue for years to come, Licht said.
"Production is forecast at 31.3 million tonnes in the global statistical year 2004/05, up from 25.9 million previously, alleviating any fears of an overall serious supply shortage," the analyst said.
Given current high world prices, the outlook is for another record crop, Licht said.