Foreign exchange market views, key levels

20 Mar, 2005

Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.
EURO/DOLLAR: "I am looking for this minor downtrend to take us back down to 1.3150 dollars into midweek next week, and then more consolidation between 1.3150 dollars and 1.3400 dollars."
"Over the medium term I am still looking for a move to $1.2225 in the April/May timeframe, despite higher oil, moving to $59.10 per barrel in April."
DOLLAR/YEN: "I see sideways moves between 104.25 yen and 105.25 yen into midweek next week and a grinding dollar rally to 106.0 yen into April, as the euro weakens."
EURO/DOLLAR: "A major support can be found at $1.3300-05, established by the 23.6 percent Fibonacci of the $1.2730-1.3482 euro rally and by the 61.8 percent Fibonacci of the $1.3669-1.2730 dollar rally.
Another major support was awaiting the US currency bulls at $1.3268, a combination of the February triple top consolidation and a 20-day moving average.
An intermediate support at $1.3352, a 10-day moving average, will put up a first line of defence against the dollar advance."
"Euro longs will have to retake the minor resistance at $1.3386, 5-day moving average, in a bid to push above to the intermediate resistance at $1.3450, established by a previous session spike high."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Yen bulls began their retreat, as the advancing dollar bulls are attempting to push the pair up to the channels upper boundary, a major resistance at 105.05 yen.
Yen bulls will rely on intermediate resistance at 104.87, a 38.2 percent Fibonacci of the 101.68-106.87 yen dollar rally, to mount a defence.
Currently traders are keeping the dollar well bid as the yen is being pushed against the minor resistance at 104.65 yen, a 20-day moving average.
Advancing dollar bulls left a 104.46 yen as an intermediate support, created by the crossing of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages.

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